UFC Vegas 105 gambling preview: Will Josh Emmett score another incredible knockout against Lerone Murphy?

The UFC is returning to the world’s mightiest APEX.

On Saturday, UFC Vegas 105 goes down, headlined by a top 15 featherweight matchup between Josh Emmett and Lerone Murphy. Can Murphy make the leap to true contender, or will Emmett reinsert himself into the title picture at 145 pounds? Plus, how can you benefit from all the action on Saturday? Let’s dive right into the best picks and plays this weekend.

All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Single Plays

Pat Sabatini (+190)

Sabatini takes on Joanderson Brito in the co-main event in a sneaky-fun matchup. Brito is on a good run in the UFC (and it should be better as he deserved to beat William Gomis in September), but I don’t think he should be this big of a favorite. This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, except sometimes Brito initiates grappling exchanges as well. Brito is a solid enough grappler to avoid getting tapped, but if this ends up on the floor Sabatini should control and win, and I think he’s good enough with the wrestling to make that happen.

Talita Alencar (-114)

Alencar takes on Vanessa Demopoulos in the first fight of the evening on Saturday and this is a simple breakdown: Demopouls is primarily a grappler, but Alencar is better. When Demopoulos was just taking up BJJ, Alencar was winning world championships. Demopoulos also isn’t a great wrestler, so the chances that this stays on the feet and turns into bad kickboxing aren’t that high. This should go to the ground and Alencar is the bigger fish in that pond.

Prop Bets

Josh Emmett Decision No Bet (+140)

The main event on Saturday has long odds and, frankly, I think they’re too long. Yes, Emmett is 40 years old and has been out for over a year, but he’s still a very dangerous fighter, and Murphy isn’t a world-beater. More importantly, we’ve seen Murphy get hurt before, and Emmett is one of the division’s premier power punchers.

But instead of taking a shot on Emmett at a big underdog price, I thought we’d try something a little safer. For the uninitiated, this bet pushes if it goes to a decision, so basically, we’re betting either Emmett gets a KO and we win, or Murphy wins a decision and we get our money back.

Parlay

Two weeks of parlays hitting, let’s go for three in a row, and going back to the gimmick. This week it’s Round 3 Contender Series prospects that I underrated.

Luis Gurule (-265)

Gurules takes on Ode Osbourne in a main card flyweight bout, and though I didn’t rate him highly as a prospect from Contender Series, upon second reflection, he deserved a little better. Gurule is a former Furc FC champion, a D-II college wrestler, and he’s pro-ready already. The man has good grappling and good cardio, and the only real knock on him is that he’s 31 years old. Osbourne, meanwhile, is a known entity and I expect Gurule to control this fight with his wrestling.

Daniel Frunza (-158)

Frunza takes on Rhys McKee in a prelim welterweight contest that I favor him to win. For one thing, Frunza is a scrappy striker with shades of Bryan Barberena to him. For another, Rhys McKee cannot buy a win in the UFC. In two trips through the promotion, he’s 0-4. McKee is going to give Frunza the striking contest he wants and Frunza has more dog in him, so McKee should drop to 0-5.

Parlay these two bets together for +124 odds.

Wrap Up

Alright! It’s been a tough start to 2025 for us, but the last few weeks, we’ve gotten things back on track. We had a solid winning week for UFC Mexico. Now, let’s try and make it three in a row as we head into UFC 314 fight week.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

All information in this article is provided to readers of MMA Fighting for entertainment, news, and amusement purposes only. It is the responsibility of the reader to learn and abide by online gambling laws in their region before placing any online sports betting wagers.