Having lived through the Great Fixed-Gear Boom-Bust Cycle Of The Early 21st Century, I’d like to say I emerged stronger as a result, but sadly this is not true. If anything the experience has deeply traumatized me, because I know all too well that no matter how high we may be flying we can come crashing down again at any moment. That’s why as everyone else runs around happily graveling as though the good times will never end I can’t help feeling as though this whole thing has “bubble” written all over it:
I asked the AI to generate an image for “This Whole Gravel Thing Has Bubble Written All Over It” and that’s what I got. Great, gravel with bubbles in it. Is there even a tread pattern for that? Quick, somebody ask Jan Heine!
But yes, there are signs that the gravel bubble is about to burst. For example, tastemaker Ultraromance (widely acknowledged as the Warren Buffet of Jorts) is now offering a bespoke mid-reach brake road bike:
Hey, some of us were riding mid-reach road bikes before they were cool:
Nevertheless, clearly the medium-reach road bike is poised to become the new gravel bike.
But to really know where gravel stands you need to go where the rubber meets the road–or the gravel, or the bubble-infused gravel–and that’s Craigslist. See, the bike industry and its mouthpieces in the media tell you only what they want you to believe, but it’s on Craigslist where you get to see what’s really happening. That’s why I created the BSNYC GMI:
So what’s been happening since then? With spring around the corner, are riders increasing their gravel holdings, or are they divesting? Well, a simple search for “gravel” on the New York City Craigslist is quite revealing. For example, it yields this Pinarello Dyodo:
Seriously, Pinarello made an electric gravel bike, and they named it the “Dyodo?”
Huh, I had no idea that’s what “Raphus cucullatus” meant. If I had to guess, I’d have thought it was Latin for “The Crotch of the Rapha:”
[Two Raphi cucullati side by side.]
Anyway, I wanted to learn more about the Pinarello Dodo, so I found a review:
I guess they found it heavy:
As a Rivendell rider I’m aghast that anyone would consider 28lbs hefty at all, let alone too hefty to ride without a motor. Hey, here’s an idea for Pinarello: what about a bike that weighs under 20lbs and has no motor at all? I bet that would be super fast!
Somebody should look into that.
Anyway, according to the review the Dodo cost $8,000 when it was new, and this one’s listed for $4,150. That’s nearly a 50% haircut, and with riding season imminent no less! And that’s not the only e-gravel bike on Craigslist, either:
Keep in mind a new Turbo Creo SL Comp Carbon EVO (I’m out of breath just typing that) costs over $7,000:
That may seem high, but keep in mind it’s not only a Turbo, but also an SL and an EVO! Specialized are really going all-in on the car-inspired word salad naming conventions, aren’t they? Regardless, this is another assisted bike offered at a steep discount, so clearly the bottom is falling out of the electro-gravel market.
But what about the other end of the spectrum? How are steel gravel bikes with mechanical shifting going? Well here’s a Velo Orange Pass Hunter:
It was built by Bernie!
Apparently I’m supposed to know who that is. Of course I do know who Velo Orange is, but in case you don’t they’re the Bizarro Soma:
And here’s another Pass Hunter, built differently but similarly priced:
When analyzing the market, it’s important to consider why people are selling, and in this case the owner wants greater tire clearance:
I can see that the seller is on the fence, and if I were his advisor I’d tell him to hold. Tires are getting too wide, and the imminent medium-reach brake trend is a clear indicator that the market for wide tires is about to contract. Things have been getting too wide for too long, and I suspect the whole wide tire thing is soon going to blow completely off the rim and leave investors covered in sealant, economically speaking.
As for the gravel conversion market, the state of it is always an important indicator, and currently signs are not good:
The seller notes that “inquiries asking whether this is still available will be ignored,” which means he’s annoyed that he’s still got it, which means the market is clearly stagnant.
Also, is there anyplace in the world where an aluminum Trek is rare?
And speaking of Treks…
…it’s “gravel bike ready:”
Is there any bike that’s not gravel ready at this point? Certainly vintage tobacco collaboration (tobacollabo?) bikes are:
See?
And so are vintage automotollabo bikes:
See?
Gravel mania already and we’re barely into March. Get out while you still can!
