Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat! A lot of new developments after only a week of spring games.
You can check out the latest Opening Day roster projections here …
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/tigers
And playing time projections here …
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=6
And ask as many questions as necessary to get you all caught up.
2:02
E: Thoughts on if Drake Baldwin or Dalton Rushing could make their respective teams out of spring, outside of injuries? If not, when/what might it take for them to get the call?
2:04
Jon Becker: If we assume everybody’s healthy, then no chance for Rushing, I think it’s really just Pages, Kim, or Outman for that last spot.
As for Baldwin, I suppose him tearing it up for the rest of the spring and forcing the Braves’ hand is possible, but I’ve read a bunch of times that they want Murphy catching a lot and you’re not going to roster Baldwin to only catch once or twice a week. But if Murphy struggles again he’ll be the first guy up.
2:05
Cubs: Brujan or Workman, who’s the first guy out the door once Nico is healthy?
2:07
Jason Martinez: It will really depend on Matt Shaw. If they don’t think he’s ready, then there is room for both. Workman would probably get a lot of time at 3B. Brujan’s biggest value right now is that he can play CF, along with most other positions, so I think he gets the nod over Workman if the Cubs are ready to let Shaw play everyday.
2:07
Tea for the Cantillerman: Should I read anything into Triston McKenzie coming out of the pen for his first spring appearance? Asking as a Joey Cantillo fan…
2:08
Jon Becker: It’s commonplace early in Spring Training for starters to piggyback with each other since they’re only going to throw 1-2 innings each and some teams have a bunch of guys they want to keep stretched out and audition for spots. So I don’t think it’s indicative of anything re: McKenzie yet, who should be considered the front-runner for the fifth spot since he’s out of options. Was good to see his velocity was up a couple ticks.
2:09
Chris S.: Do you think Kerry Carpenter projects to a full time role this season?
2:11
Jason Martinez: Probably not, although I think there’s a window early on (especially with Vierling starting the season on the IL) that gives him a chance to play in the OF and face LHP more often. I don’t think he’s reached the point in his career yet where he’s a Joc Pederson type who is mostly a DH vs RHP. But he’s probably close to becoming that and Tigers probably want to find out if he’s capable of more.
2:11
Jon Becker: Hinch said at the start of Spring Training that they’re going to give him those opportunities during exhibition games but he’s got to earn them during the regular season, and so far in his career he hasn’t really done anything to show he’s deserving of facing lefties often.
2:11
Zebulon: Do you think Zebby or Festa have a chance of cracking the Twins’ opening day rotation?
2:13
Jon Becker: Not a 0% chance, but I wouldn’t call it likely. López, Ober, and Ryan have three spots for sure, and SWR and Paddack are heavily favored for the last two. But even the most healthy teams need 7+ starters throughout the year, and every year there are a bunch of starters who didn’t make the cut on Opening Day who end up being super important.
2:13
Chris S.: How do you project Zack Neto this year with the injury?
2:17
Jason Martinez: Projection systems are typically conservative with players who were very good in their 1st full season. And that’s probably be good because our brains tell us they should be even better in Year 2 and yet the sophomore slump is probably more likely. I think most are showing Zeto to be about the same this season with less stolen bases. So just because he had 23 HR/30 SB as a 23-year-old in his 1st full season doesn’t mean it thinks he’s gonna be even better and go 30 HR/35 SB or something like that. Second full big league season, especially coming back from injury. But, with that said, the Angels think he’s going to be a superstar. A SS who can be a 20+HR/20+SB guy with plus defense is usually a superstar. Hopefully the shoulder surgery doesn’t slow him down too much.
2:18
Mayo never goes bad: What would it take for Coby Mayo to start in the bigs? Or get back to the bigs?
2:19
Jon Becker: Right now, probably an injury or Kjerstad looking so awful in Spring Training that he squanders his Opening Day spot that he’s been all but guaranteed of. But it’s also not a completely insurmountable roster for him midseason if he keeps hitting in Triple-A and shows he has nothing more to prove. For example, Mountcastle and O’Hearn were more good than great last year (though Mountcastle should be aided by the wall moving in), and Laureano was a DFA under a year ago.
2:20
Worried Perez: What is the over-under on Eury Perez major-league starts this year?
2:21
Jason Martinez: Sounds like he’ll be back around mid-season. They’ll also be cautious with him once he’s back so I’ll say 15 starts is probably a good over/under. That’s where I have him … https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=20
2:21
shortstops: I find it fascinating that both the dodgers and braves, elite at roster construction as they are, don’t really go after elite shortstops, excluding the trea turner era. Who do you see as more likely to take a SS job, Nacho Alvarez or Alex Freeland?
2:23
Jon Becker: Alvarez, I think. Freeland is more highly regarded than Alvarez, who looked awful in his limited MLB action last year, but Betts is so, so much better than Arcia and the Dodgers seem really committed to him as the starting SS. But if it goes badly defensively for Mookie or a corner outfielder is hurt I suppose he could change positions yet again.
2:23
matt: Do you think Dylan Moore will start at 2B for the Mariners?
2:26
Jason Martinez: My guess is that the Mariners would prefer that Ryan Bliss takes hold of the job so they’d be able to utilize Moore in his familiar super-utility role. If that doesn’t happen, I think Moore plays often early in the season but he’d really just be keeping the spot warm until someone else (probably Cole Young) gets a shot later in the season.
2:26
drplantwrench: what is the likelihood that Nelson Rada plays CF for the angels this season? im really hoping jo comes together, but….
2:28
Jon Becker: Right now it’d be a late-season mini-audition at best. The Angels are as aggressive as anyone at promoting prospects but promoting a 19-year-old who just put up an 87 wRC+ in AA would be extreme even for them. Outside of the three starting OF they’ve still got Moniak, Soler can play some OF, Rengifo is getting some reps in CF this spring, and also Lugo and Campero on the 40-man.
2:29
Jjp: Luisangel Acuna, worth rostering now?
2:31
Jason Martinez: Probably not for 2025. His value is tied to whether he can get a good amount of playing time at 2B and there isn’t a clear path. Jeff McNeil had a strong finish and he makes a lot of $ in 2025 and 2026. He’ll get every opportunity to remain the everyday guy. But even if he struggles again or gets injured, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio could also get consideration for at-bats at 2B. Acuña is an electric player with a lot of upside, which showed up in that very small sample last season. But it’s important to remember that he wasn’t having a great season in AAA when they called him up.
2:32
Chris S.: All your chips on the line, what Dodgers reliever do you want to own now? How about end of season?
2:33
Jon Becker: Scott for both. Dave Roberts said he’ll be top of the list for saves to start the year and he’s been excellent for back to back seasons now. Should be an awesome bullpen if everyone’s all healthy at the same time.
2:33
Just Trying: How do you see the Reds infield playing time shake out to start the season? How do you think Francona will manage playing time? Looking at CES and his odds of getting 500 PAs.
2:33
Kevin: Matt McLain is only projected for around 550 PA, is that more of a function of injury or the number of mouths to feed at 2B (i.e., Lux). If it’s the latter, how do you see a strong spring impacting that number?
2:39
Jason Martinez: Still so much to be determined. I’d imagine a lot of mixing and matching early in the season until things become settled. Sounds like Steer has some shoulder discomfort so he could be the DH in April if he avoids the IL.That would allow Candelario to play 1B with Lux getting a long look at 3B. That’s how I currently have it lined up now with CES playing vs LHP. I think Espinal will play a lot more than anyone expects (and more than fans want) because his defense is so much better than anyone else. CES and/or Noelvi looking more like their 2023 versions as opposed to 2024 would shake things up greatly.
McLain missing the entire 2024 season is a big part of his current PA projection, especially because they have so many moving parts and they can afford to be cautious. But it could easily be closer to 650 PA. He’s so talented. If he’s healthy, it will be difficult for Francona to keep him out of the lineup more than 2-3 times per month.
2:39
Carson: Noah Cameron or Kris Bubic, who makes it in the rotation in Kansas City?
2:41
Jon Becker: It sounds as if Cameron is in the SP5 competition, but more on the periphery nonetheless. Likelier to be Bubic, Marsh, or Lynch, and I think that’s the order I’d put the three in from most to least likely. Bubic had a great few starts in 2023 before his Tommy John.
2:42
Jason Martinez: Royals know Bubic can be very good out of the bullpen. So once they move him back there, it might be for good. It makes sense to give him some time to prove himself as a SP before handing the job to someone else.
2:42
Jackson: What do you make of the Phillies offseason? Their rotation is great, but I don’t know why they didn’t do more to fix their needs (mainly the outfield but also maybe a backup catcher). With their starts beginning to age and the window closing, I thought they would do more than sign Kepler
2:45
Jason Martinez: I’m fine with their offseason. Mostly running it back and adding Luzardo and Kepler to a very talented core. They have a wave of young talent who should make an impact in 2026 (Painter, Justin Crawford, Aidan Miller, Gabriel Rincones), if not sooner, and their current roster is a WS contender. Yes, they’re getting older but that championship window isn’t closed. Also sounds like they like Rafael Marchan a lot so he could get a chance to audition for 2026 with Realmuto sitting more often.
2:46
Will Wagner: Combining all of the positions he plays, how many starts does Will Wagner get this year? Is he a platoon starter, a regular who rotates positions or more of a backup / utility type?
2:48
Jon Becker: I’m a fan of his, and I think 100+ games between 1B/2B/3B/DH is plausible, though right now we’ve got him projected for 87. He historically hasn’t been great against lefties in the minors so he probably ends up as more of platoon guy, especially since they have Clement, Schneider, maybe Orelvis to work into the lineup, too.
2:49
drplantwrench: what do you think happens to the angels bullpen when Robert Stephenson comes back?
2:51
Jason Martinez: They already put him on the 60-Day IL so he’s out until at least June. I imagine that they’ll ease him back into a high-leverage role. If Jansen and Joyce are healthy and Stephenson returns to his 2023 form, that bullpen will be fun to watch. I’d expect Stephenson to be in the mix for the closer’s role in 2026, depending on how Joyce holds up in his first full MLB season.
2:51
Ben Rice: A lot of noise about him to start spring training this year. Your thoughts on how many actual games he plays? (Especially if Stanton is hurt).
2:53
Jon Becker: If Stanton’s out awhile — and at this point that’s what I tend to think since he’s been away from camp for unknown testing — there’s a clear lane for Rice to get a lot of run as the DH, at least against righties. He’s also in competition for the backup catcher’s spot, so even if he ends up as the third backstop that opens up some more opportunities for him. Just 21 projected games for him right now but that’s because of the logjam with all the other 1B/DH, so if Stanton’s out then Rice’s playing time should increase by just about as much as Stanton’s is cut by.
2:53
Tigers: Looking like Wenceel Perez breaks camp as a starter now? The projections don’t think Justin Henry Malloy spends in MLB this year, do you agree?
2:56
Jason Martinez: Those are my projections so you came to the right place. As things stand, I only see one roster spot up for grabs (assuming Jace Jung is the 3B) and I gave it to Wenceel Perez for now. Perez played a lot of OF for them last season. Malloy did not and I’m not sure they trust him out there. He’s playing some 1B this spring. He does give them a much-needed RHH who should be in the lineup vs LHP. But not sure there is room for both.
2:56
Chris S.: The Brandon Woodruff injury seems to have a bad track record for recovery and retuning to form. What are you thinking about his fantasy relevance this season?
2:58
Jon Becker: He says he’s healthy, he’s just slow-playing things this Spring, which could lead to a sort-of “maintenance” IL sting to start the year. But that said, I would want to see how he looks in a game before declaring him anywhere close to his old form, for sure.
2:58
Spencer: Any chance that Andrew Painter dominates AAA so much he forces himself up for some spot starts in late May?
3:00
Jason Martinez: Very good chance he dominates in AAA but very little chance he gets a spot start early in the season. Taijuan Walker and Joe Ross are the spot start options. If things were to get really bad because of injuries, I think they’d consider bringing Painter up in the 1st half. But it sounds like they want to hold off long enough to ensure he’s good to go in October.
3:01
drplantwrench: any thoughts on the angels 5th rotation spot? jack k, reid, dana all have looked reasonably good
3:01
Jon Becker: My best guess is Detmers, if only because he’s making arb-year money and Kochanowicz and Dana will both earn basically the league minimum when in the majors and maybe a quarter of that in AAA. But like I said earlier, teams always need 7+ starters throughout the year, and they’ll all get plenty of MLB time in 2025.
3:02
Vic: How do you see Reds pen playing out?
3:04
Jason Martinez: More depth this season should allow them to not overuse Diaz, which should result in a better performance and more consistency. If he struggles, I think they’re in better position to use a committee with Rogers/Pagan/Santillan. Graham Ashcraft is an interesting high-leverage candidate and Zach Maxwell should get a look at some point.
3:05
bmseattle: Is Jordan Walker broken? Or ready to break out? It’s been very quiet on him so far this spring.
3:05
Jon Becker: If I recall correctly he did some revamping of his swing, but time will tell if it actually clicks for him. He’s still younger than a lot of top prospects so it’s too early to call him broken, IMO.
3:06
Billy: Brewers 5th starter? Woodruff still not ready. DL Hall lat issue. Is it time to let Ashby ride? He looked amazing from the pen at the end of last year
3:07
Jason Martinez: Similar to Kris Bubic in that his team probably feels pretty confident that he can succeed as a high-leverage reliever. But there is a window, especially if they’re cautious with Woodruff, to prove that he’s more than that. Once they move him to the ‘pen, will be difficult to move him back.
3:07
Dan: Will any current free agents have a starting role (even a temporary one) this year?
3:09
Jon Becker: For hitters it might just be Verdugo, and even then he’d probably only start against righties. Iglesias may have to settle for a bench role where he plays a lot, like his Mets role last year. Quintana, Gibson, and perhaps Lynn (who’s gotten some interest as a reliever) will find guaranteed SP jobs somewhere. Always SP getting hurt in spring training, unfortunately.
3:09
Spencer: What do you think will be Michael Kopech’s role when he comes back?
3:10
Jason Martinez: As long as Scott/Yates/Treinen are healthy, they can utilize Kopech as a multi-inning guy who they can bring in at any point. That’s valuable. Of course, they’d have to feel good about his health before allowing him to pitch more than 1 inning. So I’d guess he gets eased back into that role and eventually is in the late-inning mix.
3:11
M: Any chance the Cubs roster Brad Keller? He has been sitting 96 and touching 98.
3:12
Jon Becker: They don’t have a lot of roster flexibility in the bullpen (of the eight we currently have projected there, only Hodge can be optioned), but there’s a chance, sure. At the very least he’s pitching himself onto the Tokyo Series taxi squad; the Cubs and Dodgers can bring five extra players in case they have to make a move without having to fly someone around the world.
3:12
robertobeers: Brandon Belt didn’t get a ZiPS projection on the site this year after not playing last year – What team is in greatest need of a LH platoon 1B?
3:15
Jason Martinez: Kind of similar to Anthony Rizzo in that he has a WS ring(s) and has had a great career. No reason to come back for a salary that would be insulting or would hurt future free agents. Padres would’ve been a great fit last season. They’d be a great fit this season, too. But I think he’s done.
3:15
Dan: Will you have chats at the same frequency during the season?
3:17
Jason Martinez: That’s the plan. A lot to discuss during the season because of so many injuries occurring on a daily basis, MLB players under-perfoming, and minor leaguers forcing their way into the mix.
3:17
Tacoby Bellsbury: How do you both keep baseball fun despite it being work?
3:19
Jason Martinez: As someone who has turned a hobby into a career, I can see how it could’ve not been fun anymore. Trading in a hobby for a job isn’t always the best choice and life balance is important. But this particular lane we’ve chosen is not far off from what we would be doing for fun without any compensation. There isn’t anything I don’t enjoy about what I do.
3:20
Jon Becker: Same here, my job is at least 50% stuff I’d be doing neurotically for fun anyway, so getting a career out of it is pretty nice!
3:21
Jason Martinez: That will do it for today. Thanks for joining us! We’ll be back next Friday at the same time. Have a great weekend.
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