Rodriguez Vs. Pitbull Odds, Full Fight Preview & Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight standouts Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull will throw down this weekend (Sat., April 12, 2025) inside Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla., at UFC 314.

At 32 years of age, it’s still too early to rule out Rodriguez as a future champion, even if he’s come up short in more than one big opportunity. “Pantera” is such an obviously special fighter, a unique offensive force with perhaps the nastiest kicks in the game. Sure, he’s got clear weaknesses as well, but if he ever figures out those issues …

Five years his elder, Pitbull is one of the rare signings who didn’t come through Contender Series or on short notice. The former Bellator kingpin is undoubtedly an exceptional fighter and was thought by a certain few to be the best in the world at his peak, but the question is where he stands in 2025.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Rodriguez vs. Pitbull Betting Odds

Yair Rodriguez victory: -180
Yair Rodriguez via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Yair Rodriguez via submission: TBD
Yair Rodriguez via decision: TBD
Patricio Pitbull victory: +150
Patricio Pitbull via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Patricio Pitbull via submission: TBD
Patricio Pitbull via decision: TBD
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Rodriguez Wins

Rodriguez is a special athlete. The Taekwondo athlete moves with unusual speed and has a diverse arsenal of kicks. Even the kicks that seem more flash than substance can still knock his opponent across the Octagon, and Rodriguez’s punches and elbows can do real damage even if it’s not classic boxing.

With significant advantages in height and reach on his side, Rodriguez’s strategy is clear here. There’s no need to chase after the shorter fighter who’s also an expert counter puncher, not when Rodriguez can win the range battle. It’s not Rodriguez’s style to run around the outside, but he can still put himself at a huge advantage by blasting kicks and sticking counter jabs when Pitbull tries to respond.

Rodriguez is at his best when flowing on offense, firing at all levels and from both stances. Against a smaller and older opponent, Rodriguez should be able to let his kicks fly, build an early lead, and force Pitbull into uncomfortable territory. He’ll still have to be mindful not to give up easy takedowns, but that threat decreases with each liver and calf kick landed.

How Pitbull Wins

Pitbull is near the end of an outstanding career. He’s an excellent counter puncher with big power, heavy kicks, and an excellent ground game. He’s been fighting top-notch competition since 2010, and the Brazilian has still managed to rack up 24 finishes in the process.

Despite Rodriguez’s size and range advantage, Pitbull has clear avenues to victory here. He’s the much more well-rounded fighter, whereas Rodriguez has notable flaws in the realms of wrestling and conditioning. I don’t think that Pitbull is quite as adaptable as Alexander Volkanovski generally, but “The Great” did write the perfect anti-Rodriguez blue print less than two years ago.

I understand fully that Pitbull likes to hang back and land his own kicks and counters, but that’s not the path here. He has to back Rodriguez up, blocking his kicks and returning with combinations. As soon as Rodriguez is anywhere near the fence, it’s time to level change and enter on the legs.

It’s important to note that Rodriguez is much more dangerous in the first than the second. If Pitbull keeps his guard high and works through the difficult moments, he’s likely to gain momentum as the fight wears on.

Rodriguez vs. Pitbull Prediction

This is a really difficult fight to predict. Generally, I trust Pitbull’s process much more than the chaos of “Pantera.” Getting Rodriguez tired and wrestling him has consistently worked since Frankie Edgar did it back in 2017, but that doesn’t mean it’s easy. That path usually involves walking through heavy fire, which doesn’t sound like a safe path for a 37 year old who’s been finished in twice in recent years.

Ultimately, it’s hard to know how effectively Pitbull will be able to employ a pressure strategy. Rodriguez, meanwhile, is well accustomed to blast kickings and dodging takedowns, so he’ll be reliant upon his usual “A game” in this booking.

There might be some hairy moments late, but I expect Rodriguez to return to the win column.

Prediction: Rodriguez via decision

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 314 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+)

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