Predictions, Odds, Analysis! UFC London, X-Factor

This weekend (Sat., March 22, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to The 02 Arena in London, England, for UFC London. Hitting the road typically means a more interesting fight card, and that trend holds true here. The main and co-main event feature former champions trying to battle back into the title mix, as Leon Edwards and Jan Blachowicz aim to build momentum by turning away Sean Brady and Carlos Ulberg respectively. The rest of the night is filled with local and semi-local talent, as a fun mix of European prospects and veteran scrappers fill up the undercard.

Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the first three main card fights leading up to Kevin Holland vs. Gunnar Nelson:

Women’s Strawweight: Molly McCann (+164) vs. Alexia Thainara (-198)

Best Win for McCann? Luana Carolina For Thainara? Rose ConceiçãoCurrent Streak: McCann lost her last bout, whereas Thainara has won nine in a row ahead of her UFC debutX-Factor: Thainara accepted the fight on short-notice after visa issues cancelled McCann’s original booking versus Istela Nunes How these two match up: “The Meatball” can be trusted to win or lose in dramatic fashion.

McCann is a better boxer than most in women’s MMA, capable of moving her head well and putting together powerful punches smoothly. Her wrestling and defensive grappling remain an issue, but there’s been some progress there over the years. Thainara is likely to test that growth, as the Brazilian debutant has strong ground skills overall. The 27-year-old prospect clearly has physical talent, as she demonstrated an ability to push a gnarly pace in her Contenders Series appearance.

The short-notice nature of the booking adds in some question marks, but this doesn’t feel like the ideal foe for McCann. She tends to struggle when unable to implement her physicality on her opposition, and Thainara can match her in strength and quickness. More to the point, Thainara can probably drag her foe to the floor, and I’m not confident in McCann’s ability to scramble back to her feet.

Barring some gas tank issues late, this seems to be Thainara’s fight to lose.

Prediction: Thainara via decision

Lightweight: Jordan Vucenic (-360) vs. Chris Duncan (+285)

Best Win for Vucenic? Paul Hughes For Duncan? Bolaji Oki Current Streak: Vucenic lost his UFC debut last time out, whereas Duncan won his last boutX-Factor: Duncan is a talented finisherHow these two match up: Unranked but skilled Lightweights tend to create great fights.

Vucenic cut his teeth in Cage Warriors, winning the Featherweight crown before moving up to 155-pounds. He’s a well-rounded fighter with good pace and durability, able to mix up his offense well between Muay Thai combos and ground fighting. His boxing actually looked rather improved last time out versus Guram Kutateladze, as well.

Despite representing American Top Team and fighting out of Coconut Creek, Fl., Duncan is Scottish and came up fighting in the European regional scene. He’s a gamer, quick to enter exchanges with big power punches. Most of his wins come via knockout, but he demonstrated his submission prowess last time out by snatching Oki’s neck with a slick guillotine.

This is a question of consistent vs. big moments. Vucenic is generally the cleaner technician, and every aspect of his fighting game flows into the other more efficiently than Duncan. He’s definitely more likely to win overall minutes and subsequently overall rounds. Duncan, however, is the bigger hitter and more likely to score a fight-changing knock down or even a finish outright.

Vucenic is historically durable and has slugged it out with some talented opposition. I’m willing to bet his stand up edge is large enough to overcome Duncan’s power advantage, and I expect his success to build over time.

Prediction: Vucenic via decision

Featherweight: Nathaniel Wood (+142) vs. Morgan Charriere (-170)

Best Win for Wood? Andre Fili For Charriere? Gabriel Miranda Current Streak: Both men won their last boutX-Factor: Charreire has a tough history of coughing up close decisionsHow these two match up: This might be my favorite match up on the whole card.

The word to describe Wood is crafty. The former Bantamweight still feels a bit undersized for the division, but he’s able to make it work more often than not due to smart combination punching, deceptively powerful kicks, and some of the coolest clinch takedowns in recent memory. Conversely, “slick” is the descriptor that comes to mind for Charriere, similar but different. The French prospect is a plus athlete with a really nasty kickboxing game. He times and targets his strikes extremely well, and he’s got some quality ground skills as well.

On my scorecard, Charriere is still undefeated inside the Octagon. The 29-year-old talent has a ton of experience and skill alike, and he seems to have joined the roster at the perfect time. Wood can just about match him in both departments though, which makes this something of a pick ‘em in my eyes.

The key difference here is power. Charriere seems the more likely of the two to really hurt his opponent with strikes, and that extends to his kicks as well. The height and reaches are fairly equal, but Charriere’s kicking advantage is going to mean Wood has to walk through fire just to enter the pocket, where I expect them to still be similarly matched.

Prediction: Charriere via decision

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2025: 12-6

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC London fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” undercard bouts at 1 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET.

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC London news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here.