If styles make fights, Saturday’s Final Four matchup between Duke and Houston will be a brawl of epic proportions.
Not only is it a matchup between the nation’s best offense and the nation’s best defense, it’s a matchup between the two highest-rated teams in KenPom’s rankings since 2015.
That’s right. Both Duke (+39.62) and Houston (36.47) have better adjusted efficiency margins than some historically great college basketball teams across the last decade. 2018 Vilanova didn’t stack up. Neither Gonzaga nor Baylor reached those numbers in 2021. Nor did UConn in either of its back-to-back national championship runs in 2022 and 2023.
Best Duke Team Ever?
If Duke wins the national championship, it’s a near certainty that the Blue Devils will end up with the highest KenPom ranking since the formula was established in 1997.
The only team currently ranked higher all-time is the 1998-99 Duke team that lost to UConn in the National Championship game. Cooper Flagg and company have even better metrics than the 2000-01 Duke team that did win the NCAA Tournament. And yes, the three highest-rated teams in KenPom history are Dukies.
The KenPom era started in 1996-97.
The Final Four is made up of four of the top 10 KenPom teams … ever. Extraordinary!
1. 98-99 Duke2. 24-25 Duke3. 00-01 Duke4. 14-15 Kentucky 5. 20-21 Zags6. 24-25 Houston7. 23-24 UConn8. 24-25 Florida 9. 07-08 Kansas10. 24-25 Auburn
— John Fanta (@John_Fanta) March 31, 2025
While Duke’s resume this season doesn’t stack up to undefeated powerhouses like 1972 UCLA or 1976 Indiana, a national title would have to lend credence to the debate about whether this is the greatest Duke team of all time. Flagg’s crew will likely finish with better metrics than any post-1997 edition of the Blue Devils. This means that comparisons may have to shift to the 1990-91 and 1991-92 Duke teams that established the program as a blue blood. 1991-92, specifically.
Duke lost seven games throughout the 1990-91 season, but their improbable victory over the historically great UNLV Runnin’ Rebels in the Final Four that year remains the biggest win in program history.
The 1992 team was far more dominant, however, and they currently have my money as the greatest Duke team of all time. That crew went 34-2 and completed the quest for back-to-back national titles with a 20-point win over Michigan’s Fab Five in the title game.
Albeit, it’s kind of hard to separate the 1991 and 1992 teams. Both centered around stars Christian Laettner, Grant Hill and Bobby Hurley. That 1992 team also had a very close call against Kentucky in the 1992 Elite 8. This year’s Duke team has had a 20+ point lead in every tournament game so far. If it continues its stretch of dominance over perhaps the most stacked Final Four in history, a conversation may seriously need to be had.
Houston Is The Perfect Spoiler
For those fans across the country who are dreading the possibility of another historically great Duke team winning it all. I certainly understand.
Could I perhaps interest you in seeing a historically great Duke team lose in the Final Four? Because there’s a good chance Houston is the perfect candidate to send the Blue Devils packing. I mentioned this earlier, but Kelvin Sampson and the Houston Cougars are not your typical Final Four opponent. I said that correctly. I’ll again reiterate that Houston currently has better adjusted efficiency margins than any national champion in the last 25 years, only ranking below 2015 Kentucky, 2021 Gonzaga and the Duke team they’ll face on Saturday.
Houston not only has the best defense in the country this season, it has one of the best defensive units in the modern history of college basketball. The Cougars allowed a national low of 58.3 points per game in a Big 12 conference that featured four of the 12 best offensive teams in the country.
Not sold? Look no further than their Elite 8 performance against No. 2 seed Tennessee on Sunday.
Houston held Tennessee to 15 points in the first half, the lowest total for a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in NCAA Tournament history. We’re talking about a Tennessee team that spent time atop the AP Poll this season and beat Auburn to go to the SEC Championship game.
The Cougars feature arguably the nation’s best defender in JoJo Tugler, an elite offensive engine in Milos Uzan and national championship experience in All-American LJ Cryer. Houston doesn’t have the No. 1 overall draft pick on their roster, but the sum of their parts could ultimately prove greater than Duke’s on Saturday.
