Lawson and Hadjar could spring qualifying surprises: Friday practice data

Red Bull’s latest driver swap dominated the news as the Japanese Grand Prix weekend began.

As a result, Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson have new cars to get used to. While Lawson may rue losing his place at the top team, the good news for him is the Racing Bulls 02 appears to be a very tidy chassis.

Indeed, the first day of running ended with both Racing Bulls drivers ahead of their Red Bull counterparts. This needs to be qualified with the point that Tsunoda’s qualifying simulation run was compromised by one of the many red flags in second practice, while the Racing Bulls pair got largely clean laps in.

Even so, Racing Bulls’ performance bears out what we’ve seen so far this year. Tsunoda put his car fifth on the grid at Melbourne: Could Lawson or Isack Hadjar do even better on Saturday? What an outcome it would be if Lawson, fresh from his demotion from the top team, out-qualified his fellow three Red Bull-backed drivers – or even just the one who replaced him.

But Racing Bulls are potentially as much of a threat to Mercedes and Ferrari, at least over a single flying lap.

Teams’ 2024 performance in context

At this track last year F1 still seemed to be a Red Bull benefit. Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez locked out the front row of the grid and romped to an unchallenged one-two.

But Suzuka has tended to be a strong circuit for McLaren in recent years. Even at this stage last year, before the Miami Grand Prix upgrade which transformed their car, they were quick over a single lap.

Teams’ progress vs 2024

On the partially-resurfaced Suzuka track, only three teams are yet to beat their best times from last year. Of them, Aston Martin probably would have done had Fernando Alonso completed the lap he was on when he spun off at Degner One.

Tsunoda’s second practice session was compromised after he made a strong start in the opening hour. So far Verstappen’s weekend appears to be following its usual pattern, in that he spent Friday attempting different set-up solutions and not appearing particularly happy with them. He’s rebounded from deeper dips than this on a Saturday, however.

Teams’ 2024 and 2025 times

McLaren will head into Saturday as overwhelming favourites for pole position, and another front row lock-out is on the cards. However as we saw in Shanghai, the MCL39 is a tricky beast at the limit, and has caught its drivers out.

One further factor could disrupt the competitive order in qualifying: the wind direction is due to reverse, turning headwinds into tailwinds and vice-versa, which will have a significant effect upon the cars’ handling at a track where aerodynamic performance is critical. With the field so close, whoever can master that added challenge stands to claim a better qualifying position at a track where overtaking is often difficult.