There’s little current tape that the Celtics and Magic can go to gameplan for the first round series starting on Sunday. The only game that might reveal anything worth clipping would be Boston’s blowout win, despite Franz Wagner missing the game and Boston’s top-9 all being available. Even though Orlando was without their second-leading scorer, that January game could however give us a hint with how Boston might defend the Magic’s #1 option, Paulo Banchero.
In his third season, Banchero turned in an All-NBA worthy season, averaging nearly 26 points, eight rebounds, and five assists over 46 games. He’s a bruising power forward that can take advantage of smaller defenders, get to the free throw line, and shoot willingly from behind the arc. Banchero will be a handful.
In that mid-season loss at TD Garden, Banchero finished with 21 points, hitting 8-of-20 from the field. It was a ho-hum performance with the Celtics doing very little to impede Banchero’s bully-ball style.
To start halfcourt possessions, Joe Mazzulla elected to have Jayson Tatum defending his fellow Dukie. That’s 6’8, 210 pounds vs. 6’10, 250 respectively (even though I think Tatum’s getting a little short-changed there in height and weight by the NBA’s official measure). Banchero initiated a ton of offense, whether it was bringing the ball up as a de facto point forward or quickly getting the ball of a pick-and-pop switch or dribble hand off.
Orlando is trying to force the switch on to Boston’s backcourt. As good as Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are defensively, they’re matchups that Banchero can and will attack. On the night, he was 4-for-9 against the smaller Celtics and dished out three assists.
With Horford coming off the bench and matching up with Banchero, Jamahl Mosley instead went with his All-Star working off the ball and coming off the corners. I’d expect to see a lot of that with Wagner in the lineup, too. Tactically, I think the logic here is that Horford is a plus-defender if he’s squaring up to Banchero in isolation or in drop coverage. However, if he’s hedging towards a ball handler and keeping an eye on Banchero on an angle cut or off the baseline, that double duty will give the younger Banchero an extra step as a play finisher rather than a playmaker.
Post All-Star break, Orlando had the 21st most efficient offense in the NBA, only kept afloat by Banchero’s efficient scoring. The mind game in Round 1 is not so much what Boston might have conceded against a heliocentric engine like Trae Young, but rather daring Banchero to win his matchups with brute force or making plays for his teammates.
Challenge the Celtics at the rim and you’re going up against one of the best rim-protecting teams in the league.
Draw enough attention and a timely pass could get a teammate an open look.
Or, you’re Paulo freakin’ Banchero! Do it yourself.
The Celtics are good-to-great defenders throughout their playoff rotation and have showed a willingness during last postseason to not cater too much to the league’s best players. Paulo is no different.
