After a disappointing loss on Friday, the Celtics will look to bounce back as they face the Orlando Magic for Game 4 of the first round series. The Celtics won Game 1 103-86 in Boston on Sunday with a full roster. They won Game 2 109-100 on Wednesday, also in Boston, but without Jayson Tatum. In both games, the Magic kept it close in the first half but the Celtics pulled away with a big run to start the 3rd quarter of both games.
Game 4 was very different. The Celtics had a big 2nd quarter in this game and took a 10 point lead into halftime. Then, in the 3rd quarter, the Magic used a full court press to fluster the Celtics into missed shot and turnovers and they scored just 11 points in the quarter. The Magic continued their reckless play, causing another injury. Cole Anthony pulled Jaylen Brown down to the floor causing him to dislocate his finger.
In NBA history, 587 teams have held a 2-1 series lead. Of those teams that were down 1-2, 117 of them went on to win the series. If we are looking at just first round series, 225 teams have gone up 2 games to 1. Of those 225 teams, 183 teams that were up 2-1 went on to win the series. 42 teams that were down 1-2 went on to win the series. Teams that go up 3 games to 1, win the series 95.6% of the time.
This is the fourth time these two teams have met in the playoffs and the first time since 2010, when the Celtics won the Eastern Conference Finals 4-2. With the loss on Friday, the Celtics and Magic are tied with 10 playoff wins for each team. The Celtics need to win this series as quickly as possible to avoid more injuries at the hands of the reckless Magic players.
This will be an interesting matchup as illustrated by several statistics. The Celtics average the 2nd fewest turnovers (11.9) while the Magic are 2nd with 16.2 forced turnovers per game. The first game went the Celtics way in this category. The Celtics had just 9 turnovers in the game while the Magic had 15. In Game 2, the Celtics had 10 turnovers to 7 for the Magic. In Game 3, the Celtics had an uncharacteristic 21 turnovers to 14 for the Magic.
The Celtics are first in fewest shooting fouls committed while the Magic draw the 2nd most shooting fouls per 100 possessions. In Game 1, the Celtics were called for 13 fouls for the game while the Magic were called for 17 fouls. In Game 2, the Celtics were called for 19 fouls while the Magic were called for 23. In Game 3, The Celtics were called for 20 fouls while the Magic were called for 23 fouls.
The Magic have played very physically and have had some very reckless plays. In Game 1, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope took out Jayson Tatum, who injured his wrist on the play. In Game 2, Goga Bitadze took out Kristaps Porzingis with his elbow, giving him 5 stitches in his forehead. In Game 3, Cole Anthony pulled down Jaylen Brown by the arm, dislocating his finger. The Magic have amassed 3 flagrant fouls and have caused 3 injuries to key Celtics players.
The most important statistic is 3 point shooting. The Celtics averaged 48.2 threes per game in the regular season while the Magic limited teams to 31.4 attempted 3’s per game, fewest in the league. In Game 1, the Celtics attempted 37 threes, which is 11 under their season average. They made 18 of those. The Magic took just 27 threes and made just 10. In Game 2, The Celtics once again attempted 37 threes and made 12, while the Magic attempted 29 and made just 7. In Game 3, the Celtics attempted a season low 27 threes and hit just 9 while the Magic attempted 32 threes and hit 8.
Jayson Tatum (wrist), Jaylen Brown (knee) and Jrue Holiday (hamstring) were on the injury list leading up to Game 3. Tatum was doubtful and Brown and Holiday were questionable. Just before tip off, Tatum and Brown were declared available and Holiday was listed as out. At this time, Brown is questionable for this game with a right knee posterior impingement. Jrue Holiday will miss a second straight game due to a hamstring strain. I’m guessing that Al Horford will get the start for Holiday and, if Brown can’t play, Sam Hauser will likely get another start.
The Magic have 2 players on the injury list but they have been out long term for them and both will miss the playoffs. Jalen Suggs has been out since March 4 after undergoing successful arthroscopic surgery to remove a cartilage fragment in his left knee. Moritz Wagner has been out since January 9 when he tore the ACL in his left knee. Other than these two, the Magic have a clear injury report. Of course, the Celtics haven’t been playing recklessly and injuring their players either.
Probable Celtics Starters
Grid View
PG: Derrick WhiteSG: Jaylen BrownSF: Jayson TatumPF: Al Horford C: Kristaps Porzingis
Celtics ReservesPayton PritchardNeemias QuetaBaylor ScheiermanJordan WalshLuke KornetTorrey CraigSam HauserXavier Tillman, SrJD Davison
2 Way PlayersDrew PetersonMiles Norris
Injuries/OutJrue Holiday (hamstring) outJaylen Brown (knee) questionable
Head CoachJoe Mazzulla
Probable Magic Starters
Grid View
PG: Cory JosephSG: Kentavious Caldwell-PopeSF: Franz WagnerPF: Paolo Banchero C: Wendell Carter, Jr
Magic ReservesCole AnthonyGoga BitadzeAnthony BlackTristan DaSilvaGary HarrisCaleb HoustanJett HowardJonathan Isaac
2-Way Players Mac McClungTrevelin Queen Ethan Thompson
Injuries/OutMoritz Wagner (knee) out Jalen Suggs (knee) out
Head Coach Jamahl Mosley
Key Matchups
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Al Horford
Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images
Paolo Banchero
Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images
Al Horford vs Paolo Banchero Banchero averaged 25.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game in the regular season. He shot 45.2% from the field and 32.0% from beyond the arc. In Game 1, he finished with 36 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal and 1 block. He shot 51.9% from the field and 57.1% from beyond the arc. In Game 2 he finished with 32 points, 9 rebounds, 7 assists and 2 blocks while shooting 48% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. In Game 3, he finished with 29 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist and 2 steals while shooting 40% from the field and 50% from beyond the arc.
Grid View
Jayson Tatum
Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images
Franz Wagner
Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images
Jayson Tatum vs Franz WagnerWagner averaged 24.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game in the regular season. He shot 46.3% from the field and 29.5% from beyond the arc. In Game 1, he finished with 23 points, 3 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, and 2 blocks while shooting 41.7% from the field and 16.7% from beyond the arc. In Game 2, he finished with 25 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals while shooting 50% from the field and 14.3% from beyond the arc. In Game 3, he finished with 32 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 steals while shooting 40.7% from the field and 23.1% from beyond the arc.
Honorable MentionKristaps Porzingis vs Wendell Carter, JrCarter averaged 9.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game in the regular season. He shot 46% from the field and 23.4% from beyond the arc. In Game 1, he finished with 4 points and 13 rebounds while shooting 33.3% from the field and went 1-1 from beyond the arc. In Game 2, he finished with 16 points, 8 rebounds and 1 assist while shooting 75% from the field and he hit all 3 of his threes. In Game 3, Carter finished with 10 points 12 rebounds, 1 assits and 1 block. He shot 50% from the field and went 0-1 on threes. In Game 3 Porzingis struggled on both ends of the floor. Hopefully he can get his game back on track in this one.
Keys to the GameDefense – Defense is always the key to winning and even more so in the Playoffs. The Celtics are 4th the playoffs with a defensive rating of 106.0. The Magic are 11th in the playoffs with a defensive rating of 114.2. The Celtics scored just 103 points in Game 1 but they held the Magic to just 86 points. In Game 2, the Magic scored 100 points. The Magic have good defenders and so if the Celtics hope to beat them, they need match Orlando’s defensive intensity and to play tough lock down defense themselves. In Game 3, the Magic scored just 95 points, but held the Celtics to 93. Hopefully, the Magic can defend in this game without injuring another Celtic.
Rebound – As Pat Riley once said, “No rebounds, no rings.” Much of rebounding is effort and hustle and if the Celtics put the extra effort into grabbing rebounds, it usually translates to the rest of their game. The Celtics out-rebounded the Magic 42-41 in Game 1. In Game 2, the Celtics won the rebounding battle 46-34. In Game 3, the Magic out-rebounded the Celtics 42-39. They need to work harder on the boards in this one. The Celtics are 42-7 when tied or out-rebounding their opponents. The Celtics need to out-work the Magic on the boards if they want to win this game.
3 Point Shooting – In the regular season, the Celtics took the most 3’s per game while the Magic allowed the fewest 3’s per game. In the 3 games this season, the Magic held the Celtics to 11.3 fewer 3 point attempts than their average. In Game 1, the Celtics took 37 threes (43.2%) while the Magic took 27 threes (37%) In Game 2, the Celtics took 37 threes (37%) while the Magic took 29 threes (24.2%). In Game 3, the Celtics took just 27 threes (33.3%) while the Magic took 32 threes (25%) The Celtics are tough to beat when they make their 3’s and they struggle when the 3’s aren’t falling. Once again, they have to neutralize the Magic’s tough 3 point defense and at the same time play tough defense against the Magic.
Take Care of the Ball – Normally, this isn’t a problem for the Celtics as they averaged the 2nd fewest turnovers per game in the regular season. They turned the ball over 21 times in Game 3 and the Magic scored 26 points off those turnovers. The Celtics have to stay focused and take better care of the basketball in this game. They have to adjust to the Magic’s full court press and their swarming defense and not get rattled by it.
Everyone Step Up – The Magic have had 2 players carry the load for them in all 3 games so far with minimal help from the rest of the group. The Celtics usually have a more balanced attack with 2 stars leading the way but with the rest of the team stepping up also. The Magic do not have the depth that the Celtics do, even with a starter out. The Celtics have the depth and they need those players to all step up and contribute in this game. In Game 3, only 3 players were in double figures for the Celtics, Tatum, Brown and White. The Celtics need more from the rest of the team in this one.
Play Smart – The Magic have been playing exceedingly physical in the 3 games so far. There have been 3 Celtics injuries from 3 flagrant fouls by the Magic in the 3 games. Jaylen Brown has said the Celtics can fight it out to see who will go to the second round but the Celtics should not fall into that trap. The Magic have used increasing physicality to mask their talent discrepancy. The Celtics need to play their game and fight harder for rebounds, open shots, better defense, and to keep their focus on playing better rather than sinking to the Magic’s level of thuggery.
X-Factors Road Game – The Celtics are playing on the road. They are facing distractions of travel and playing in an unfamiliar arena in front of hostile fans. Although, there was a huge contingent of Celtics fans in the arena for Game 3. They need to shake off those distractions and keep their focus on playing the game. The Celtics were historically good on the road this season, going 33-8 on the road. They need to draw on that road warrior mindset to help them get a win in this one.
Injuries – Other than Kristaps Porzingis, the Celtics were mostly healthy during last year’s playoffs. They came into Game 1 healthy with just minor questions about Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday. The Celtics won without Jayson Tatum in Game 2 and Jaylen Brown dispelled any questions about his health. The Celtics missed Holiday in Game 3 but both Tatum and Brown looked good. Coming into Game 4, Jaylen Brown (knee) is once again questionable and Jrue Holiday is out with a hamstring strain. The Celtics need to lock into that next man up mentality and pull together to get a win, even if they are missing a starter or two.
Officiating – Officiating can always be an X-Factor. In some games, you don’t even notice the referees and in other games, they seem to make the game all about them. Some crews call the game tight and others let the teams play. Jaylen Brown challenged the refs to get control of the game and keep the Magic from playing so recklessly or there would likely be a fight. The officiating in Game 3 has been controversial as they missed some big calls down the stretch. Hopefully the refs will keep an eye out for reckless play from the Magic in this one and the teams won’t end up fighting.
Official ReportCrew Chief – Marc Davis Davis has been an official for 27 years. His home win/loss record this year is 34-31. He calls 48.2% of fouls against the road team. The Celtics are 2-3 this season and 10-5 over the past 2 seasons with Davis calling games. The Magic are 2-2 this year and 4-4 over the last 2 years with Davis. In the anonymous player poll last year, 4.6% said that Davis was one of the best refs while 6.8% said he was one of the worst.
Referee – Tyler Ford Ford has been a ref for 11 years. His home win/loss record is 32-36. He calls 49.3% of fouls on the road team. The Celtics are 2-3 this season and 6-3 over the last 2 years with Ford as a ref. The Magic are 1-4 this year and 4-7 over the past 2 years with Ford. In the player poll, 6.8% of the players felt he was one of the worst refs.
Umpire – Andy Nagy Nagy has been an official for 6 years. His home win/loss record is 32-34. He calls 48.8%of fouls on the road team. The Celtics are 3-0 this season and 6-0 over the last 2 seasons with Nagy as an official. The Magic are 1-4 this season with Nagy as an official and he didn’t call any games for them last season.
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