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Best NBA Finals Bets and Props 6/11/25

by Beer Belly Sports
June 11, 2025
in NBA
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We’re back today with another exciting NBA slate featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best player prop bets for tonight.

PLAYER PROPS

1. TYRESE HALIBURTON OVER 17.5 POINTS (-115)

Odds: -115Probability: 53.1%Projection: 19.1Edge: 9.6%Game: Thunder vs Pacers (8:30PM EST)

The best player bet our Basketball Forever betting bot has uncovered for today’s NBA slate takes us to Indiana where the Thunder vs Pacers play tonight. In this game, our Basketball Forever betting bot narrowed down Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 Points prop market. Throughout the postseason Haliburton has been able to average a total of 17.8 points per game. Our model suspects that with the Pacers losing their last matchup against the Thunder, they’ll come out firing the ball tonight. Haliburton has been able to wreak havoc throughout the postseason, and were expecting him to be able to exceed his line tonight.

Our model recommends placing a wager on Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 Points at -115 odds and an attractive 9.6% edge, making this our best player bet of the day.

2. JALEN WILLIAMS OVER 20.5 POINTS (-120)

Odds: -120Probability: 52.3%Projection: 21.2Edge: 8.4%Game: Thunder vs Pacers (8:30PM EST)

The next NBA player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing comes in the Thunder vs Pacers game, with Jalen Williams showing value in the total points made prop market.

Throughout the postseason, Williams has been able to hold an average of 20.1 Points per game, falling one basket short from exceeding this line in his most recent matchup. With Williams falling short of this line in the first two games against the Pacers, our model suspects that he’s due to hit this number tonight. Our Basketball Forever betting bot is protecting Williams to finish tonights game with a total of 21.2 points, covering his number. Averaging 16.5 shots taken per game, we believe there’s a lot of room for him to hit this line.

The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Jalen Williams Over 20.5 Points in tonight’s game, which gives us a 8.4% edge on the -120 odds.

3. T.J. MCCONNELL OVER 10.5 PTS + AST (-115)

Odds: -115Probability: 53.4%Projection: 14.5Edge: 7.6%Game: Thunder vs Pacers (8:30PM EST)

According to our model, the last best player prop bet for today’s NBA slate takes place in the Thunder vs Pacers game, with T.J. McConnell showing value in the total PTS + AST made prop market.

Throughout this series he’s been able to exceed this line in 2/2 games, averaging 15 PTS + AST per game. With the Pacers losing their last matchup we can expect to see them, moving the ball much as possible looking for the best scoring matchups. This will also give McConnell opportunities to rack up points, leading to him exceeding this line.

With our model projecting McConnell to finish tonight’s game with a total of 14.5 PTS + AST, we believe this is a solid wager to place on tonight’s game.

Our Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on T.J. McConnell Over 10.5 PTS + AST, with an edge of 7.6% at -115 odds.

BEST BETS

1. PACERS +5.5 (-115)

Odds: -115Probability: 52.5%Edge: 2.8%Game: Thunder vs Pacers (8:30PM EST)

Our Basketball Forever betting bot has uncovered the best bet of the day, taking place in the Thunder vs Pacers matchup. In this matchup, our model has determined that Pacers +5.5 is a solid wager to place. Tonight marks the third game in the final series, with the series being split down the middle 1-1. Our model suspects that with the Pacers being at home tonight and losing their last game on the road, they’ll be able to keep it within +5.5, and even possibly pull off the win. After losing by 16 points in their last matchup, we can expect them to come out firing tonight, covering the spread and possibly winning the game.

Our Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Pacers +5.5. With -115 odds and a 2.8% edge.

READ MORE: The Latest Intel on the Knicks’ Interest in Jason Kidd



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