The Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have been playing “will they, won’t they” for a long time, but it appears the stare down between the sides may be coming to a close. Mike Rodriguez reported on Friday that the two sides are nearing an agreement on an extension worth more than $500MM, and while no deal appears to be in place yet USA Today’s Bob Nightengale confirmed this morning that the sides are discussing a deal worth $500MM that would keep Guerrero in Toronto for at least fourteen years while suggesting that “perhaps” the deal would get done as soon as this coming week.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post joined the fray this evening, noting that sources around the team have “suggested” the the Jays are working to finish up a 14-year deal in the $500MM range while adding that a deal could be consummated “soon.” Heyman went on to refer to the deal as “seemingly all-but-done” and added that “optimism is huge” that a deal will get done, though he emphasized that both GM Ross Atkins and Guerrero himself declined to comment. Guerrero’s most recent comment on the matter was given to ESPN’s Jorge Castillo, who he told that he did “not know anything” about the state of extension talks before emphasizing that he has always “left that to [his] agent” at the Prime Agency.
Of course, Guerrero rather famously set a deadline of the start of Spring Training that came and went without a deal. The sides have seemingly continued to negotiate both in the eye of the media and behind closed doors since then, however, with fairly specific reports regarding Guerrero’s asking price and a new offer from the Jays coming to the surface. It’s fairly common for contract talks to continue beyond self-imposed deadlines if the sides are close enough, with Garrett Crochet standing as a notable recent example of a player who set a hard deadline (in his case, Opening Day) for extension talks before ultimately signing after that deadline. Jackson Merrill, Ketel Marte, Brandon Pfaadt, and Kristian Campbell are among the other players to have signed extensions since the season began who presumably opened negotiations with their clubs during Spring Training.
Both previous talks between the sides and reports regarding the latest framework have centered around a 14-year pact. That’s a reflection of Guerrero’s youth, as he only just turned 26 years old last month. It’s a somewhat similar situation to Juan Soto, who hit free agency right around his 26th birthday. Given his youth and talent, he was able to parlay a frenzied free agency into a record-shattering 15-year deal worth $765MM. On that kind of length, the Jays and Guerrero weren’t far apart in February. A gap of $50MM on a 14-year deal would only be $3.57MM annually. A $100MM gap would be $7.14MM per year. Those are fairly small numbers in terms of an MLB club’s budget, so it was understandable that Shapiro and Atkins felt good enough about bridging the gap to publicly suggest they would sign Guerrero when all was said and done.
Prior to Soto moving the goalposts, the reported $500MM value of the deal Guerrero and the Jays are discussing would have been a record-breaking deal. Shohei Ohtani signed a ten-year, $700MM contract with the Dodgers just over a year ago. However, the massive deferrals in that contract significantly lowered the NPV. The league calculated his AAV as $46.06MM while the MLBPA pegged it at $43.78MM. Ballparking the guarantee around $450MM was still a record at the time, with Mookie Betts and his $365MM the previous top guarantee. Of course, Ohtani’s deal moved to a distant second with the Soto deal and now Guerrero is apparently poised to shoot past him as well.
Guerrero’s track record isn’t quite as elite as that of Soto, who is simply in a class all his own as an offensive talent with a career wRC+ (158) in the same ballpark as Guerrero’s peak seasons. Even so, his numbers are quite good and he’s only a year older; when Guerrero is at his best, he’s easily the closest comparison to Soto in the game in terms of age and overall offensive ability. For the Jays, he has been the face of the franchise for a long time. After the club’s postseason appearances in 2015 and 2016, they entered a quick rebuild period that saw them post losing records for the next three years. As such, many fans rested their hopes on an emerging core of young prospects like Guerrero, Bo Bichette and others.
His initial major league work was good but not great, though it came at an age when most prospects are still playing in college or in the minors. He hit .269/.336/.442 over the 2019 and 2020 seasons for a 107 wRC+, indicating he was 7% better than league average at the plate. To be holding his own in the big leagues during his age-20 and -21 seasons was still a notable accomplishment, however, even if he wasn’t immediately playing at All-Star levels. Any doubts about his ability to reach the ceiling he flashed as a prospect were quelled in 2021, as he hit 48 home runs, drew walks at a 12.3% clip and only struck out 15.8% of the time. His .311/.401/.601 batting line led to a wRC+ of 166. He would have won the American League Most Valuable Player award that year, if not for an absurd two-way season from Ohtani.
Guerrero couldn’t quite carry that MVP-caliber offensive output over into his next two seasons. He hit a combined .269/.341/.462 in 2022 and 2023 for a 125 wRC+. While that’s still strong production, it’s obviously a drop from his 2021 campaign and 2023 in particular cast him as closer to pedestrian than superstar as he posted a 118 wRC+ with just 1.3 fWAR. Fortunately, Guerrero helped to quell his doubters when he cranked things back up last year, slashing .323/.396/.544 for a 165 wRC+ and finishing sixth in a crowded AL MVP field.
That’s not to say that there is no risk. The defense is questionable and he’s not a burner on the basepaths. But he has already accomplished a lot with the bat at a young age. His walk and strikeout rates have been consistently better than average, with strong power to boot. On any kind of massive deal like this, the signing club probably knows it won’t look pristine all the way to the final season, as the Tigers and Angels could tell you about their deals for Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols. The Jays will be hoping that they get piles of value from Guerrero’s prime years, both in terms of on-field and off-field value, in order to ease the pain of his eventual decline.
Arguably, it would have been cheaper to extend Guerrero earlier in his career, as players generally gain earning power as they get closer to free agency. However, Guerrero’s oscillating results perhaps gave the Jays pause about making a significant commitment to him. From Guerrero’s perspective, he was an incredibly talented prospect and on track to reach free agency at such a young age, giving him incentive to bet on himself. Finding a price amenable to both sides would have been challenging.
The stars have seemingly aligned recently. Guerrero’s 2024 season seemed to prove that 2021 wasn’t a fluke. Meanwhile, the Jays have attempted to secure mega deals with other players and fallen short. They were heavily tied to Ohtani, Soto, Roki Sasaki and plenty of other players who would have been headline-grabbing acquisitions, but none on those pursuits panned out. Until this Guerrero deal becomes official, the largest deal in franchise history is George Springer’s $150MM guarantee on a six-year pact, which is now more than four years old. With Shapiro and Atkins reportedly both nearing the ends of their respective contracts and the Jays disappointing in 2024, it has been suggested they are under pressure for a big public relations victory.
Since they haven’t been able to get those big deals for marquee free agents done, that leaves them some future payroll space to commit to Guerrero. He and Bichette are both slated for free agency after 2025, as are Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Chad Green. After 2026, Springer, Kevin Gausman and Daulton Varsho are slated to hit the open market. José Berríos is under contract through 2028, but has an opt-out after 2026. Anthony Santander will have an opt-out chance after 2027. Andrés Giménez and Alejandro Kirk could be the two players making notable money still on the team by 2028 if those opt-out clauses are exercised, and there’s nothing on the books beyond 2030.
If Guerrero and the Jays officially put pen to paper, it will deprive the coming offseason of one of the top free agents. As of now, Guerrero and Kyle Tucker are viewed as the top position players likely to be available. On the pitching side, Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen and Michael King will be some of the most attractive names. That will be a tough development for fans of other clubs but it could be a huge benefit to those other free agents, especially Tucker, who will become the uncontested best free agent hitter available in a market that looks increasingly starved for impact offense without Guerrero at the top. Of course, all of this would require the sides to officially get a deal done.
