After a historic 6-0 road trip, the Celtics return home to take on the Miami Heat. This is the 4th, and final, game between these two teams this season. The Celtics won all 3 of the games between them so far this season. The Celtics are 86-53 overall, all time against the Heat and they are 44-23 in games played in Boston.
The Celtics remain 2nd in the East. They are 4 games behind 1st place Cleveland, who are have lost their last 5 games. They are 8.5 games ahead of 3rd place New York and 12 games ahead of 4th place Milwaukee. They are 24-12 at home and 9-1 in their last 10 games. They are 35-11 against Eastern Conference teams. They have won their last 9 games.
The Heat are 9th in the East, 26 games behind first place Cleveland. They are 1.5 games behind 8th place Orlando and 6.5 games behind 6th place Milwaukee. They are 1 game ahead of 10th place Chicago and 6 games ahead of 11th place Toronto. They are 15-22 on the road and 5-5 in their last 10 games. They are 22-26 against Eastern Conference opponents and have won their last 5 games.
The Celtics just completed the first 6-0 road trip in Celtics history. After this game against the Heat, the Celtics will play Phoenix at home on Friday. Then it’s back on the road for back to back games at New York and at Orlando. They will finish the season with 2 games against the Charlotte Hornets at home.
The Heat are playing in the 3rd game of a 3 game road trip. They beat Philadelphia and Washington in the first two games on the trip. They then play 3 games at home, hosting Memphis, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia. They will then play at Chicago and at New Orleans before finishing the season at home against Washington.
The Celtics have 3 players questionable and 1 player doubtful for this game. After leading the Celtics to the win over Memphis, Al Horford is doubtful for this game with the ever bothersome sprained toe. Jrue Holiday is questionable with a right shoulder injury. Kristaps Porzingis is questionable due to return-from-illness reconditioning. Jaylen Brown is questionable due to right knee posterior impingement. All are listed as a game time decision.
I’ve included the questionable players in the starting lineup. I don’t have a clue who would start if any, or all of them, are unable to play. Jaylen Brown needs to play in 6 of the last 7 games or he will not be eligible for any post season awards so he may opt to play in limited minutes rather than sit the game out.
The Heat have 5 players listed as out on their injury report. Nikola Jovic hasn’t played since Feb. 23 due to a fractured metacarpal on his right hand and is out for this game. Duncan Robinson will miss a fifth straight game with a back issue. Andrew Wiggins will miss his 3rd game due to right hamstring tendinopathy. Kevin Love will miss his 4th game for personal reasons. Dru Smith is out due to torn Achilles.
Probable Celtics Starters
Grid View
Celtics ReservesPayton PritchardLuke KornetNeemias QuetaXavier Tillman, SrJordan WalshBaylor ScheiermanSam Hauser Torrey Craig
2 Way PlayersJD DavisonDrew PetersonMiles Norris
Injuries/OutJaylen Brown (knee) questionable Kristaps Porzingis (rest) questionable Jrue Holiday (shoulder) questionableAl Horford (toe) doubtful
Head CoachJoe Mazzulla
Probable Heat Starters
Grid View
Heat ReservesKyle AndersonHaywood HighsmithJaime Jaquez, JrKeshad JohnsonDavion MitchellTerry Rozier III
Two Way PlayersJosh ChristopherIsaiah StevensDru Smith
Injuries/OutNikola Jovic (hand) out Kevin Love (personal) out Andrew Wiggins (hamstring) outDru Smith (Achilles) outDuncan Robinson (back) out
Head Coach Erik Spoelstra
Key Matchups
Grid View
Jrue Holiday
Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images
Tyler Herro
Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
Jrue Holiday vs Tyler Herro Herro is the Heat’s leading scorer this season. He is averaging 23.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game. He is shooting 46.9% from the field and 37.2% from beyond the arc. In 2 games against the Celtics this season, he averaged 19 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists while shooting just 38.2% from the field and 27.8% from beyond the arc. The Celtics need to defend him both on the perimeter and in the paint. Jrue may or may not play in this one.
Grid View
Jayson Tatum
Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images
Bam Adebayo
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Jayson Tatum vs Bam AdebayoAdebayo is averaging 17.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. He is shooting 48.5% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. In the first 3 games against the Celtics, he averaged 15.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists while shooting 35.7% from the field and 20% from beyond the arc. He is a threat to score in the paint and grab rebounds and so the Celtics need to box him out and defend him well around the basket.
Honorable MentionKristaps Porzingis vs Kel’el WareWare is averaging 9 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game. He is shooting 56.2% from the field and 31.7% from beyond the arc. In 2 games against Boston this season, he averaged 7.5 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist and 1 block per game while shooting 43.8% from the field and no threes. Porzingis is questionable for this game and with Horford doubtful, we may see Queta or Kornet to start.
Keys to the Game Defense – Defense will always be the biggest key to winning every single game. The Celtics are 5th with a defensive rating of 110.2. The Heat are 9th with a defensive rating of 112.0. The Celtics need to defend the perimeter especially since the Heat attempt 37.4 threes a game and shoot threes just slightly worse than the Celtics at 36.5%. The Celtics need to work hard on defense and make that their priority.
Rebound – Along with defense, rebounding is always a key to winning. As Pat Riley once said “No rebounds, no rings.” The Celtics average 45.1 rebounds per game (10th) while the Heat average 43.1 rebounds per game (22nd). The Celtics are 32-6 when they out-rebound opponents. It takes effort and hustle to get rebounds and the Celtics need to give more effort and hustle than the Heat to grab rebounds if they want to win this game.
Move the Ball – The Celtics are tough to beat when they keep the ball moving and find the open man but when one player over dribbles and lapses into hero ball, they falter. The Celtics are 41-2 when they have more assists than their opponent. Keep the ball moving and don’t lapse into iso ball, whether in the first quarter or the 4th quarter. Hero ball rarely ends well.
Next Man Up – With 4 players questionable for this game and one player doubtful, the Celtics will need every player to step up their game and contribute on both ends of the court. They need the starters to come out strong and get off to a good start. The reserves need to come in and keep up the energy and hit their shots and most importantly, every player must play lock down defense and also crash the boards.
X-Factors Home Game and Fatigue – The Celtics are just coming off a 6 game road trip and the first game at home is always a tough one. The Heat will be playing in front of a hostile crowd and in an unfamiliar arena while the Celtics will have the crowd behind them to give them motivation. The Heat have 5 players out and so fatigue may come into play down the stretch for both teams.
Officiating – Officiating is always an x-factor in every game. Every crew officiates differently. Some call it tight, others let them play. The Celtics need to adjust to how the refs are calling the game and not allow bad calls or no calls to take away their focus from playing the game. The more aggressive team will usually get the benefit of the calls and so the Celtics need to be the more aggressive team.
And make sure to check out CelticsBlog’s Playback stream for a live conversation about the game. To participate, just create a free account, connect your LP sub if you have it, and join our community.
