Would you like a break from DK Metcalf discourse? Cool. Let’s talk about Geno Smith instead.
I’ve been thinking about writing this op-ed since before the Super Bowl and have struggled to find the time and ability to figure out how I want to approach this subject. It’s the boring part of the offseason, so here goes nothing on more quarterback discourse.
The Seattle Seahawks are probably rolling with Geno Smith at quarterback for at least the 2025 season. If it happens, it might not be the most popular move given Smith is coming off a season in which he threw 15 interceptions and made several critical red zone mistakes. Smith has gone from a great Comeback Player of the Year caliber story to a polarizing player. Seemingly every week for at least two seasons there has been discourse over whether he is a good (or even great) quarterback, a backup level quarterback, a bridge quarterback, true franchise quarterback, etc.
I think even the most hardened Smith critic would acknowledge that he hasn’t been in the most ideal situation to succeed. The Seahawks have had a weak running game for two seasons, defenses bad enough to effectively fire Pete Carroll and replace him with Mike Macdonald, and an offensive line that has been neither cohesive nor competent in a generation.
But I want to dive a little deeper into the perspective and understanding of why some Seahawks fans would prefer to move on from Smith now instead of later. I think there’s an underlying aspect to Smith that is not exclusively directed at him as an individual.
Geno Smith is not Russell Wilson
Only an extremely anti-Russell Wilson person would believe that Wilson is anything other than the greatest Seahawks quarterback in franchise history. It was a shock to the system when he was traded to the Denver Broncos and any recent animosities shouldn’t erase how great and popular Wilson was in his prime.
Geno Smith is in some respects a “victim” of his own reputation set when he busted out of the New York Jets, in addition to succeeding the best QB in Seahawks history. If you pretended that some other quarterback replaced Wilson—Drew Lock, a rookie, some other journeyman like Gardner Minshew II, etc.—there would’ve been varied but intense scrutiny from Day 1 because a high standard had already been set.
Anything less than Wilson’s ceiling for a fanbase that has seen the best of Wilson for close to a decade—let’s be honest, there are a lot of current Seahawks fans for whom Wilson was the only quarterback they ever watched and it shapes their entire viewpoint—would look like “not good enough to contend with.”
There’s also Smith’s age. He’s 34 right now and didn’t become Seattle’s full-time starter until he was 31. The number of good starting quarterbacks who are effective, high-end starters into their late 30s is small and usually reserved for the upper quartile.
Making a deep playoff run ≠ Perennial Super Bowl contention
I don’t agree with the idea that the Seahawks cannot make a Super Bowl run with Geno Smith at quarterback. Is it likely? No, but making the Super Bowl is already difficult in itself. The Seahawks are still in a conference that has seen Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Nick Foles (deputizing for Carson Wentz), and Brock Purdy make it to the big game within the last decade. Goff was agonizingly close to making it back with a different team just two seasons ago. Case Keenum, who’d never started a playoff game prior to 2017, quarterbacked the No. 2 seed Minnesota Vikings on Conference Championship weekend in a game his team lost to Foles’ team. Are we to assume Smith isn’t even as good as Jimmy Garoppolo? I hope not.
Sports fans tend to be greedy and it’s easy to understand why. A solitary run at a championship is not enough; the hallmark of great teams are prolonged championship windows. Dynasty is the ultimate goal because it’s the most fulfilling yet the most difficult to achieve. If you hate the Kansas City Chiefs constantly being in the Super Bowl it’s because there is a kernel of jealousy that it’s not the Seahawks in KC’s spot. Your typical Madden player won’t turn on franchise mode and max out at one season. They will run through multiple seasons and try and win multiple championships by creating an indestructible roster while cosplaying as an NFL general manager.
The Seahawks were on the cusp of being a possible dynasty with Russ at quarterback and stumbled at the final hurdle like Gail Devers in the 1992 Olympics. They haven’t bottomed out but they haven’t returned to true contention since February 1, 2015.
Modern NFL dynasties don’t happen with late bloomer quarterbacks
I know you don’t have evidence to the contrary because there is no evidence to the contrary.
If we define a modern NFL dynasty as a team with at least three championship wins within a decade, then there is no Geno Smith equivalent that has ever been a starting quarterback.
All six dynastic quarterbacks listed were drafted by their respective teams. If you want to add late-career John Elway for his pair of Lombardi Trophies in the last 1990s, you can add another Hall of Fame player but technically he was originally selected by the Colts. He also made three Super Bowls early in his career but just took a bunch of beatings in the process.
The only multi-time Super Bowl quarterback whose career path could be considered within the same ballpark as Geno Smith is Jim Plunkett, who literally never went to a Pro Bowl but did win CPOY the same season he won his first of two rings with the Raiders. He was 33 years old in the 1980 season and 36 for his final ring. Occasionally his name is mentioned for Hall of Fame consideration but even adjusting for that era of football he has no case apart from the silverware.
This isn’t to say you cannot contend for several seasons with a late bloomer quarterback. Rich Gannon was fairly unremarkable for a decade before joining the Raiders in 1999 as a 33-year-old. They went to an AFC Championship Game and a Super Bowl under Gannon, who won league MVP in 2002 at age 37. Two seasons later he was effectively forced into retirement due to injury. The window was only four seasons but it’s a hell of a lot better than anything the Raiders have mustered up recently. We also have to acknowledge, however, that quarterbacks like Gannon are outliers and not the norm.
We can even look inward for another example. Immediately(ish) preceding Wilson was Matt Hasselbeck, whom at his best was a very good QB and led this franchise to its first Super Bowl appearance in the 2005 season. If we’re being completely honest, Seattle also wasn’t a serious contender in any other season in which he was the full-time starter, and it took until his age 28 season to be the unquestioned QB1. Those Seahawks also benefited hugely from playing in a very poor NFC West at the height of his success. It was also a huge upgrade from the 1990s to early 2000s doldrums, so that era of Seahawks football is remembered fondly, with 2005 doing heavy lifting.
Why I can understand the sentiment behind wanting to move on from Geno Smith
Just to be abundantly clear: understanding a viewpoint does not mean agreeing with the viewpoint. I would rather not see the Seahawks cut or trade Smith this season but I’m also not going to be blindsided if he’s not retained.
If the argument to move on from Geno is that he’s “mid” or a bad quarterback or too expensive then we’re not on the same wavelength. The “problem” with Smith is that, at least to me, he has become a good enough quarterback on a good enough roster such that Seattle would need a lot to happen to bottom out as a 10+ loss squad. He’s helped Seattle win a lot more than he’s been culpable in losses. At the same time, there’s no getting around his age. Even acknowledging how many seasons he didn’t start, a non-HOF caliber QB in his mid-30s is not conducive to being a long-term solution on an otherwise fairly young team.
The Seahawks seemingly want the best of both worlds and thus are in a two-timeline situation; their quarterback is on the wrong side of the aging curve while they’ve stacked young talent whom they hope to be a part of the team beyond their rookie deals. It’s effectively trying to have a window of contention with an older quarterback before seamlessly transitioning to a new window with a drafted quarterback, skipping the usually painful season(s) in between. A little bit Green Bay Packers-esque, if you will. In Smith’s case, they haven’t even been actual contenders and have one lopsided playoff appearance to show for it. The window of contention arguably hasn’t actually existed.
I believe that a team’s floor is as high as the quality of the roster and that a team’s ceiling is often as high as its starting quarterback. Even if we get the best version of Geno Smith next season, it’s increasingly dicey to believe that it’ll sustain for too many more years. When Russ was the quarterback, the rest of the core of the team was also young and it felt like the Seahawks were going to be a perennial contender. It has not helped that Seattle’s “efforts” to find a young quarterback have been Drew Lock and Sam Howell, of whom the latter was clearly brought in as a backup.
If you’re of the belief that the Seahawks can win and seriously compete right now, there are virtually no available options on paper who’d be likely better than Smith. It doesn’t preclude Seattle from drafting a quarterback this year, but keep in mind that rookie quarterbacks making deep playoff runs like Jayden Daniels are anomalous, not a standard. Kirk Cousins’ body is falling apart, Sam Darnold could stay with the Vikings (and just had a horrendous end to a great season), and the only higher-end reclamation projects who could be of interest are Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, and maybe Mac Jones.
On the flip side, moving on from Smith right now is about as obvious a “rip the band-aid off” move as John Schneider could make. It could potentially lead to a major floor-lowering and poor on-field results, but with the long-term view of focusing on finding a franchise quarterback first and worrying about wins and losses secondarily. I won’t call it tanking, but depending on what they do with trading Metcalf and re-signing Ernest Jones IV, it might sort of be a pseudo-tank if it reaches that level.
In a matter of hours or days we’re going to find out how the Seahawks view Geno Smith, and consequently how they see the 2025 season and beyond. Seattle has straddled the center lane long enough and it’s about time to find out what path it wants to choose to become a real, perennial championship contender again. I believe the crux of the frustration regarding Geno is that the window to compete with him is condensed, whereas the natural inclination of fans is to want that young, high-ceiling potential superstar quarterback for the next decade who can be the centerpiece of a contender and/or dynasty. Seattle has been stuck in the middle neither contending with Geno (whether or not he’s at “fault) nor finding that next quarterback, which only adds to the tension I see on this site and among Seahawks fans on other sites on a daily basis.
Your move, John Schneider. Show us which path you want to choose over the next several weeks.
