Image credit: © Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images
Flip a coin 10 times and you’ll probably come up with a combination of heads and tails. Probably. But not always. On rare occasions, you might get heads 10 times in a row. The odds against it are 1,024 to 1. Your chances of getting 10 consecutive heads are small, but not vanishingly small. It’s entirely possible. You want to know what’s almost impossible? The odds of winning Powerball are one in 292,201,338. Your chances of getting heads 28 times in a row are better. But people still play Powerball. They’re not dissuaded by the odds.
That’s because sometimes really unlikely events occur. Here at BP, we calculate projected standings using PECOTA, our proprietary model. But PECOTA, like all projection systems, has error bars around it. You can see them if you scroll down past the numbers on the standings page. When we produce projections for a team’s win total, or a player’s OPS, we’re not saying they’ll hit it exactly. Rather, we’re saying that’s the likeliest outcome. Each estimate has an implied plus-or-minus factor. Stack a few of those pluses and minuses atop one another, and you can get some pretty big outliers.
I got the idea for this analysis from this 2016 article by Sam Miller, in which he ran a million full-year simulations and noted some of them. All of them had, by definition, at least a one-in-a-million chance of occurring. For the sixth year, I’m doing the same here, using 100,000 simulations. That’s a lot of projections*! Let’s look at some of the most noteworthy ones.
Play It Again: Sim 29992
Last year, the Yankees, Guardians, Astros, Phillies, Brewers, and Dodgers won their divisions. The Orioles, Royals, Tigers, Braves, Mets, and Padres were the wild card teams. There were only 14 simulations that wound up with the same division champions, none that had the same 12 clubs playing in October. But Sim 29992 featured the same postseason combatants in the Senior Circuit.
NL East
W
NL Central
W
NL West
W
Philadelphia
88
Milwaukee
97
Los Angeles
102
New York
85
Pittsburgh
83
San Diego
86
Atlanta
84
Chicago
76
San Francisco
79
Washington
82
Cincinnati
73
Arizona
75
Miami
68
St. Louis
72
Colorado
65
On Second Thought, 2024 Wasn’t All That Great: Sim 16292
There isn’t a sim in which none of the 12 postseason teams repeat. That’s not surprising; when 40% of all teams make the playoffs, the odds of all of them dropping to the lower 60% approach zero. But in sim 16292, only the Dodgers and Braves get into the playoffs.
AL East
W
AL Central
W
AL West
W
Toronto
97
Minnesota
93
Texas
104
Tampa Bay
96
Chicago
77
Los Angeles
89
New York
74
Detroit
77
Seattle
82
Baltimore
71
Kansas City
74
Houston
79
Boston
70
Cleveland
71
Sacramento
71
NL East
W
NL Central
W
NL West
W
Atlanta
95
Chicago
91
Los Angeles
106
Philadelphia
85
St. Louis
86
San Francisco
89
New York
84
Milwaukee
81
Arizona
86
Washington
70
Pittsburgh
7 5
San Diego
78
Miami
57
Cincinnati
68
Colorado
54
Cue The Salary Cap Diatribes: Sim 19637
Per Cot’s Contracts, the 10 teams with the highest payrolls are the Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Astros, Braves, Padres, and Angels, in that order. Sim 196374 sees that as money well-spent. Probably too well-spent for some.
AL East
W
AL Central
W
AL West
W
New York
90
Minnesota
92
Houston
104
Toronto
87
Detroit
81
Texas
93
Baltimore
83
Kansas City
76
Los Angeles
87
Tampa Bay
83
Cleveland
75
Sacramento
85
Boston
82
Chicago
57
Seattle
79
NL East
W
NL Central
W
NL West
W
Atlanta
99
Chicago
100
Los Angeles
104
Philadelphia
88
Milwaukee
80
San Diego
87
New York
87
St. Louis
74
Arizona
86
Washington
63
Cincinnati
70
San Francisco
72
Miami
53
Pittsburgh
67
Colorado
47
The playoffs would consist of the 10 teams with the highest payrolls, averaging about 93 wins each, plus two Central Division champions. If the Cubs and Twins exit early, the narratives will be excruciating.
In Fact, They’ll Be Really Loud: Sim 57073
The two teams that garnered the most headlines this winter were the Mets, for signing Juan Soto, and the Dodgers, for signing everyone else. Sim 57073 adds fuel to the rein-them-in fire. (Of course, if you limit their payrolls without also reducing their revenues, they’ll just make even more money.)
NL East
W
NL West
W
New York
114
Los Angeles
113
Atlanta
96
Arizona
87
Philadelphia
88
San Diego
77
Washington
72
San Francisco
76
Miami
55
Colorado
57
The Vanishing Middle Class: Sim 34530
Eleven teams with 100 wins or losses (italicized).
AL East
W
AL Central
W
AL West
W
Toronto
90
Minnesota
100
Texas
96
Tampa Bay
85
Cleveland
85
Houston
88
New York
84
Kansas City
81
Seattle
86
Boston
83
Detroit
62
Los Angeles
80
Baltimore
80
Chicago
54
Sacramento
74
NL East
W
NL Central
W
NL West
W
Atlanta
102
Chicago
102
Los Angeles
107
New York
102
Pittsburgh
80
Arizona
86
Philadelphia
90
Milwaukee
76
San Diego
85
Miami
59
St. Louis
71
San Francisco
78
Washington
58
Cincinnati
62
Colorado
44
The Burgeoning Middle Class: Sim 92829
No team with over 93 wins or 95-losses. All but one American League team within 10 games of .500.
AL East
W
AL Central
W
AL West
W
Tampa Bay
89
Minnesota
87
Los Angeles
88
Boston
86
Detroit
85
Texas
87
New York
82
Kansas City
79
Seattle
81
Baltimore
80
Cleveland
76
Houston
76
Toronto
78
Chicago
67
Sacramento
71
NL East
W
NL Central
W
NL West
W
New York
92
Chicago
89
Los Angeles
93
Philadelphia
89
Milwaukee
83
San Diego
93
Atlanta
88
St. Louis
79
Arizona
83
Washington
74
Pittsburgh
77
San Francisco
72
Miami
70
Cincinnati
71
Colorado
67
Urban Dominance: Sim 9738
The three largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. are New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. In sim 9738, they all do pretty well. This is not a small task, given that Los Angeles and Chicago each have one pretty bad ballclub.
AL East
W
AL Central
W
AL West
W
New York
96
Minnesota
93
Texas
94
Toronto
91
Kansas City
84
Los Angeles
88
Baltimore
86
Chicago
71
Houston
84
Tampa bay
82
Detroit
67
Seattle
84
Boston
73
Cleveland
65
Sacramento
67
NL East
W
NL Central
W
NL West
W
New York
110
Chicago
83
Los Angeles
108
Atlanta
87
Milwaukee
83
Arizona
93
Philadelphia
87
Pittsburgh
80
San Francisco
85
Miami
56
St. Louis
77
San Diego
82
Washington
51
Cincinnato
76
Colorado
49
Only the White Sox would miss the playoffs.
Urban Non-Dominance: Sim 98716
The big markets fare a lot worse in Sim 98716.
AL East
W
AL Central
W
AL West
W
Boston
95
Minnesota
93
Seattle
93
Tampa Bay
85
Cleveland
82
Houston
92
Baltimore
83
Detroit
81
Texas
91
Toronto
80
Kansas City
81
Los Angeles
70
New York
77
Chicago
56
Sacramento
67
NL East
W
NL Central
W
NL West
W
Philadelphia
97
Milwaukee
90
Arizona
97
Atlanta
89
Pittsburgh
80
Los Angeles
93
New York
79
Chicago
79
San Diego
89
Washington
74
Cincinnati
76
San Francisco
71
Miami
58
St. Louis
75
Colorado
58
The Dodgers are, of course, like Thanos, inevitable. But none of the other large-market teams have a winning record, much less make the playoffs.
Break Up the Small Markets: Sim 49741
The smallest metropolitan areas in MLB are Milwaukee, Cleveland, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Sacramento. If that’s a disadvantage, you wouldn’t know it by sim 49741.
AL East
W
AL Central
W
AL West
W
New York
94
Minnesota
95
Houston
92
Baltimore
87
Cleveland
87
Sacramento
88
Toronto
83
Kansas City
87
Los Angeles
86
Tampa Bay
79
Detroit
73
Seattle
81
Boston
76
Chicago
64
Texas
77
NL East
W
NL Central
W
NL West
W
Philadelphia
93
Milwaukee
88
Los Angeles
104
New York
87
Pittsburgh
85
Arizona
81
Atlanta
86
Chicago
84
San Francisco
80
Miami
56
Cincinnati
79
San Diego
72
Washington
54
St. Louis
73
Colorado
59
Depending on how the AL tiebreaker goes, four or five of the six small-market teams would make the playoffs. Only three of the big-market teams would.
Jerry Reinsdorf Makes History, Version 1: Sim 396
AL Central
W
Chicago
85
Minnesota
84
Kansas City
82
Cleveland
79
Detroit
69
No team has ever gone from 120-plus losses in one season to a postseason berth in the next. Until now.
Jerry Reinsdorf Makes History, Version 2: Sim 77481
AL West
W
Minnesota
96
Kansas City
88
Cleveland
82
Detroit
76
Chicago
38
No team has ever gone from 120-plus losses in one season to an even worse record in the next. Until now.
To Which the Rockies Laugh Derisively: Sim 17920
NL West
W
Arizona
102
Los Angeles
98
San Diego
90
San Francisco
80
Colorado
28
You could say, “Well, they play in the same division as the Dodgers,” except the sim has the Dodgers failing to win 100 games for only the third time since 2017 (excluding 2020). A 28-134 record, a .173 winning percentage, would be the worst since the formation of the American League in 1901. The only full-season teams worse were the 20-134 1899 Cleveland Spiders and the 23-113 1890 Allegheny City (Pittsburgh) club, which was so bad it didn’t get a nickname.
ESPN Quietly Re-Ups for Sunday Night Baseball: Sim 3516
AL East
W
New York
98
Boston
97
Toronto
89
Baltimore
82
Tampa Bay
73
That Sunday night timeslot doesn’t have a lot of competition, and we know how ESPN will fill it. Over and over and over.
Juan Soto Has Regrets: Sim 5716
AL East
W
NL East
W
New York
100
Philadelphia
93
Baltimore
98
Atlanta
91
Toronto
87
Washington
73
Boston
84
New York
68
Tampa Bay
79
Miami
64
Or Maybe He Made the Right Call: Sim 51013
AL East
W
NL East
W
Toronto
89
New York
117
Baltimore
87
Philadelphia
87
Boston
77
Arizona
81
Tampa Bay
76
Miami
70
New York
72
Washington
57
And All the Teams are Above Average: Sims 28152
There were 7,909 sims that had every team in a division above .500. Here’s the best.
AL East
W
New York
96
Tampa Bay
95
Toronto
92
Baltimore
90
Boston
90
And All the Teams are Below Average: Sim 42334
Congratulations to American League Central champion Kansas City Royals!
AL Central
W
Kansas City
74
Cleveland
69
Detroit
69
Minnesota
69
Chicago
59
The Royals would play the loser of the tiebreaker between the 86-76 Orioles and Astros in the wild card round, which would be watched at home by the 84-win Rays and 80-win Angels.
Once Again, the Battleground States Determine the Outcome: Sim 3424
The battleground states in the 2024 Presidential election were Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. The latter two don’t have MLB teams. In Sim 3424, representatives of the other five states win their division.
AL East
W
AL Central
W
AL West
W
New York
94
Detroit
90
Seattle
98
Baltimore
93
Cleveland
83
Houston
90
Tampa Bay
83
Minnesota
82
Texas
88
Toronto
74
Kansas City
79
Los Angeles
66
Boston
70
Chicago
66
Sacramento
60
NL East
W
NL Central
W
NL West
W
Atlanta
97
Pittsburgh
85
Arizona
97
New York
82
Milwaukee
85
Los Angeles
94
Philadelphia
81
Chicago
85
San Diego
91
Miami
66
Cincinnati
79
San Francisco
81
Washington
60
St. Louis
79
Colorado
52
I’ll bet you didn’t have the Pirates as the Pennsylvania team that wins its division. And, yes, the Brewers and Pirates tied, and who knows how the tiebreaker with the Cubs would work out. But a swing state team can plausibly claim to have won two-thirds of divisions.
The Aesthetically Pleasing Sims 87105, 98100, and 30773
Can you detect the pattern? Here is sim 87105:
AL East
W
NL Central
W
Baltimore
95
Chicago
85
Boston
86
Cincinnati
84
New York
82
Milwaukee
82
Tampa Bay
79
Pittsburgh
77
Toronto
78
St. Louis
75
The teams are in alphabetical order, by city. The NL Central configuration occurred 1,654 times and the AL East one 421 times. There were only six occurrences of a Houston-Los Angeles-Sacramento-Seattle-Texas AL West, and only one each of Chicago-Cleveland-Detroit-Kansas City-Minnesota and Atlanta-Miami-New York-Philadelphia-Washington. It seems that 2025 is not the year for Arizona-Colorado-Los Angeles-San Diego-San Francisco; it didn’t occur. This should not surprise you.
This is sim 98100:
AL East
W
NL West
W
Blue Jays
91
Diamondbacks
104
Orioles
86
Dodgers
97
Rays
82
Giants
86
Red Sox
81
Padres
76
Yankees
80
Rockies
57
Alternatively, check out sim 30773:
AL Central
W
NL Central
W
Guardians
88
Brewers
84
Royals
86
Cardinals
82
Tigers
83
Cubs
81
Twins
80
Pirates
78
White Sox
60
Reds
77
In those sims, the teams finish in alphabetical order by nickname. That AL East configuration occurred 770 times, AL Central 728, NL West 418, NL Central 274. There were no Angels-Astros-Athletics-Mariners-Rangers or Braves-Marlins-Mets-Nationals-Phillies finishes.
Will They Take Down the Billboards? Sim 69364
Probably not.
NL Central
W
Pittsburgh
106
Chicago
82
Milwaukee
82
Cincinnati
78
St. Louis
69
The Absolute Best Sim I’ve Ever Seen: Sim 61389
In past years, I’ve highlighted sims in which there were four-way ties for first in divisions. There were several this time as well: 19 in the AL East, four each in the AL West and NL Central, three in the AL East. But I’ve never seen this before:
AL East
W
Baltimore
81
Boston
81
New York
81
Tampa Bay
81
Toronto
81
Please let this come true. This is the sixth year I’ve done this, and this is absolutely the best outcome imaginable.
So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance: Sims 65736, 60860, and 11585
When you run 100,000 simulations of a season, you get a lot of outcomes. But not every one possible! There are two outcomes that didn’t occur in any of our simulations: Dodgers last and Rockies first. That doesn’t mean they won’t happen (though they won’t). It just means that, per PECOTA, the chance of them happening is less than 1 in 100,000.
But there were three results that exactly hit that 1 in 100,000 threshold. Here are the results that have a 0.001% chance of occurring:
Sim 65736: Rockies finish second
NL West
W
Los Angeles
113
Colorado
79
Arizona
76
San Diego
75
San Francisco
73
Sim 60860: Braves finish last
NL East
W
New York
96
Philadelphia
88
Miami
73
Washington
72
Atlanta
71
That race for third will really capture the public imagination.
Sim 11585: Marlins finish first
NL East
W
Miami
86
New York
85
Atlanta
83
Philadelphia
75
Washington
68
This could really put a crimp in the plans of all those teams expecting to trade for Sandy Alcantara before the deadline.
As Predicted by My Birdfeeder
There were 6,895 simulations in which the Blue Jays had more wins than the Cardinals and the Cardinals had more wins than the Orioles. As anyone who owns a birdfeeder frequented by those three species knows, that’s how it goes in the avian world as well. Cardinals, while shy and gentle, have a size advantage over orioles. Blue jays are much larger birds and, frankly, big jerks who don’t like sharing the feeder.
Odds and Ends
The five most common outcomes were Rockies last (99,162 occurrences), Dodgers first (96,069), White Sox last (92,043), Cubs first (84,136), and Marlins last (81,382). The hardest team to predict is the Rays: 14.0% first, 18.1% second, 21.2% third, 23.9% fourth, 22.8% fifth. The single most common divisional finish was Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Padres, Giants, Rockies, which occurred in 34.6% of simulations. The toughest-to-predict division was the American League East, where the most common finish (Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays, Red Sox) occurred only 2.1% of the time.
Thanks to Robert Au for running these simulations, and thanks to Baseball Prospectus for footing the bill for the computing time necessary to complete them.
*Yes, I know, the Jules Verne science fiction novel whose title I’m stealing describes 20,000 leagues. We’re giving you five times as many leagues for your subscription!
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