100,000 Leagues Under the PECOTA: 2025 | Baseball Prospectus

Flip a coin 10 times and you’ll probably come up with a combination of heads and tails. Probably. But not always. On rare occasions, you might get heads 10 times in a row. The odds against it are 1,024 to 1. Your chances of getting 10 consecutive heads are small, but not vanishingly small. It’s entirely possible. You want to know what’s almost impossible? The odds of winning Powerball are one in 292,201,338. Your chances of getting heads 28 times in a row are better. But people still play Powerball. They’re not dissuaded by the odds.

That’s because sometimes really unlikely events occur. Here at BP, we calculate projected standings using PECOTA, our proprietary model. But PECOTA, like all projection systems, has error bars around it. You can see them if you scroll down past the numbers on the standings page. When we produce projections for a team’s win total, or a player’s OPS, we’re not saying they’ll hit it exactly. Rather, we’re saying that’s the likeliest outcome. Each estimate has an implied plus-or-minus factor. Stack a few of those pluses and minuses atop one another, and you can get some pretty big outliers.

I got the idea for this analysis from this 2016 article by Sam Miller, in which he ran a million full-year simulations and noted some of them. All of them had, by definition, at least a one-in-a-million chance of occurring. For the sixth year, I’m doing the same here, using 100,000 simulations. That’s a lot of projections*! Let’s look at some of the most noteworthy ones.

Play It Again: Sim 29992

Last year, the Yankees, Guardians, Astros, Phillies, Brewers, and Dodgers won their divisions. The Orioles, Royals, Tigers, Braves, Mets, and Padres were the wild card teams. There were only 14 simulations that wound up with the same division champions, none that had the same 12 clubs playing in October. But Sim 29992 featured the same postseason combatants in the Senior Circuit.

NL East
W
 
NL Central
W
 
NL West
W

Philadelphia
88

Milwaukee
97

Los Angeles
102

New York
85

Pittsburgh
83

San Diego
86

Atlanta
84

Chicago
76

San Francisco
79

Washington
82

Cincinnati
73

Arizona
75

Miami
68

St. Louis
72

Colorado
65

On Second Thought, 2024 Wasn’t All That Great: Sim 16292

There isn’t a sim in which none of the 12 postseason teams repeat. That’s not surprising; when 40% of all teams make the playoffs, the odds of all of them dropping to the lower 60% approach zero. But in sim 16292, only the Dodgers and Braves get into the playoffs.

AL East
W
 
AL Central
W
 
AL West
W

Toronto
97

Minnesota
93

Texas
104

Tampa Bay
96

Chicago
77

Los Angeles
89

New York
74

Detroit
77

Seattle
82

Baltimore
71

Kansas City
74

Houston
79

Boston
70

Cleveland
71

Sacramento
71

 

NL East
W
 
NL Central
W
 
NL West
W

Atlanta
95

Chicago
91

Los Angeles
106

Philadelphia
85

St. Louis
86

San Francisco
89

New York
84

Milwaukee
81

Arizona
86

Washington
70

Pittsburgh
7 5

San Diego
78

Miami
57

Cincinnati
68

Colorado
54

 

Cue The Salary Cap Diatribes: Sim 19637

Per Cot’s Contracts, the 10 teams with the highest payrolls are the Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Astros, Braves, Padres, and Angels, in that order. Sim 196374 sees that as money well-spent. Probably too well-spent for some.

AL East
W
 
AL Central
W
 
AL West
W

New York
90

Minnesota
92

Houston
104

Toronto
87

Detroit
81

Texas
93

Baltimore
83

Kansas City
76

Los Angeles
87

Tampa Bay
83

Cleveland
75

Sacramento
85

Boston
82

Chicago
57

Seattle
79

 

NL East
W
 
NL Central
W
 
NL West
W

Atlanta
99

Chicago
100

Los Angeles
104

Philadelphia
88

Milwaukee
80

San Diego
87

New York
87

St. Louis
74

Arizona
86

Washington
63

Cincinnati
70

San Francisco
72

Miami
53

Pittsburgh
67

Colorado
47

The playoffs would consist of the 10 teams with the highest payrolls, averaging about 93 wins each, plus two Central Division champions. If the Cubs and Twins exit early, the narratives will be excruciating.

In Fact, They’ll Be Really Loud: Sim 57073

The two teams that garnered the most headlines this winter were the Mets, for signing Juan Soto, and the Dodgers, for signing everyone else. Sim 57073 adds fuel to the rein-them-in fire. (Of course, if you limit their payrolls without also reducing their revenues, they’ll just make even more money.)

NL East
W
 
NL West
W

New York
114

Los Angeles
113

Atlanta
96

Arizona
87

Philadelphia
88

San Diego
77

Washington
72

San Francisco
76

Miami
55

Colorado
57

The Vanishing Middle Class: Sim 34530

Eleven teams with 100 wins or losses (italicized).

AL East
W
 
AL Central
W
 
AL West
W

Toronto
90
 
Minnesota
100

Texas
96

Tampa Bay
85

Cleveland
85

Houston
88

New York
84

Kansas City
81

Seattle
86

Boston
83
 
Detroit
62

Los Angeles
80

Baltimore
80

Chicago
54

Sacramento
74

 

NL East
W
 
NL Central
W
 
NL West
W

Atlanta
102

Chicago
102

Los Angeles
107

New York
102

Pittsburgh
80

Arizona
86

Philadelphia
90

Milwaukee
76

San Diego
85

Miami
59

St. Louis
71

San Francisco
78

Washington
58

Cincinnati
62

Colorado
44

The Burgeoning Middle Class: Sim 92829

No team with over 93 wins or 95-losses. All but one American League team within 10 games of .500.

AL East
W
 
AL Central
W
 
AL West
W

Tampa Bay
89

Minnesota
87

Los Angeles
88

Boston
86

Detroit
85

Texas
87

New York
82

Kansas City
79

Seattle
81

Baltimore
80

Cleveland
76

Houston
76

Toronto
78

Chicago
67

Sacramento
71

 

NL East
W
 
NL Central
W
 
NL West
W

New York
92

Chicago
89

Los Angeles
93

Philadelphia
89

Milwaukee
83

San Diego
93

Atlanta
88

St. Louis
79

Arizona
83

Washington
74

Pittsburgh
77

San Francisco
72

Miami
70

Cincinnati
71

Colorado
67

Urban Dominance: Sim 9738

The three largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. are New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. In sim 9738, they all do pretty well. This is not a small task, given that Los Angeles and Chicago each have one pretty bad ballclub.

AL East
W
 
AL Central
W
 
AL West
W

New York
96

Minnesota
93

Texas
94

Toronto
91

Kansas City
84

Los Angeles
88

Baltimore
86

Chicago
71

Houston
84

Tampa bay
82

Detroit
67

Seattle
84

Boston
73

Cleveland
65

Sacramento
67

 

NL East
W
 
NL Central
W
 
NL West
W

New York
110
 
Chicago
83
 
Los Angeles
108

Atlanta
87

Milwaukee
83

Arizona
93

Philadelphia
87

Pittsburgh
80

San Francisco
85

Miami
56

St. Louis
77

San Diego
82

Washington
51

Cincinnato
76

Colorado
49

Only the White Sox would miss the playoffs.

Urban Non-Dominance: Sim 98716

The big markets fare a lot worse in Sim 98716.

AL East
W
 
AL Central
W
 
AL West
W

Boston
95

Minnesota
93

Seattle
93

Tampa Bay
85

Cleveland
82

Houston
92

Baltimore
83

Detroit
81

Texas
91

Toronto
80

Kansas City
81

Los Angeles
70

New York
77
 
Chicago
56

Sacramento
67

 

NL East
W
 
NL Central
W
 
NL West
W

Philadelphia
97

Milwaukee
90

Arizona
97

Atlanta
89

Pittsburgh
80

Los Angeles
93

New York
79
 
Chicago
79

San Diego
89

Washington
74

Cincinnati
76

San Francisco
71

Miami
58

St. Louis
75

Colorado
58

The Dodgers are, of course, like Thanos, inevitable. But none of the other large-market teams have a winning record, much less make the playoffs.

Break Up the Small Markets: Sim 49741

The smallest metropolitan areas in MLB are Milwaukee, Cleveland, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Sacramento. If that’s a disadvantage, you wouldn’t know it by sim 49741.

AL East
W
 
AL Central
W
 
AL West
W

New York
94

Minnesota
95

Houston
92

Baltimore
87

Cleveland
87

Sacramento
88

Toronto
83

Kansas City
87

Los Angeles
86

Tampa Bay
79

Detroit
73

Seattle
81

Boston
76

Chicago
64

Texas
77

 

NL East
W
 
NL Central
W
 
NL West
W

Philadelphia
93

Milwaukee
88

Los Angeles
104

New York
87

Pittsburgh
85

Arizona
81

Atlanta
86

Chicago
84

San Francisco
80

Miami
56

Cincinnati
79

San Diego
72

Washington
54

St. Louis
73

Colorado
59

Depending on how the AL tiebreaker goes, four or five of the six small-market teams would make the playoffs. Only three of the big-market teams would.

Jerry Reinsdorf Makes History, Version 1: Sim 396

AL Central
W

Chicago
85

Minnesota
84

Kansas City
82

Cleveland
79

Detroit
69

No team has ever gone from 120-plus losses in one season to a postseason berth in the next. Until now.

Jerry Reinsdorf Makes History, Version 2: Sim 77481

AL West
W

Minnesota
96

Kansas City
88

Cleveland
82

Detroit
76

Chicago
38

No team has ever gone from 120-plus losses in one season to an even worse record in the next. Until now.

 

To Which the Rockies Laugh Derisively: Sim 17920

NL West
W

Arizona
102

Los Angeles
98

San Diego
90

San Francisco
80

Colorado
28

You could say, “Well, they play in the same division as the Dodgers,” except the sim has the Dodgers failing to win 100 games for only the third time since 2017 (excluding 2020). A 28-134 record, a .173 winning percentage, would be the worst since the formation of the American League in 1901. The only full-season teams worse were the 20-134 1899 Cleveland Spiders and the 23-113 1890 Allegheny City (Pittsburgh) club, which was so bad it didn’t get a nickname.

ESPN Quietly Re-Ups for Sunday Night Baseball: Sim 3516

AL East
W

New York
98

Boston
97

Toronto
89

Baltimore
82

Tampa Bay
73

That Sunday night timeslot doesn’t have a lot of competition, and we know how ESPN will fill it. Over and over and over.

Juan Soto Has Regrets: Sim 5716

AL East
W
 
NL East
W

New York
100

Philadelphia
93

Baltimore
98

Atlanta
91

Toronto
87

Washington
73

Boston
84

New York
68

Tampa Bay
79

Miami
64

 

Or Maybe He Made the Right Call: Sim 51013

AL East
W
 
NL East
W

Toronto
89

New York
117

Baltimore
87

Philadelphia
87

Boston
77

Arizona
81

Tampa Bay
76

Miami
70

New York
72

Washington
57

 

And All the Teams are Above Average: Sims 28152

There were 7,909 sims that had every team in a division above .500. Here’s the best.

AL East
W

New York
96

Tampa Bay
95

Toronto
92

Baltimore
90

Boston
90

And All the Teams are Below Average: Sim 42334

Congratulations to American League Central champion Kansas City Royals!

AL Central
W

Kansas City
74

Cleveland
69

Detroit
69

Minnesota
69

Chicago
59

The Royals would play the loser of the tiebreaker between the 86-76 Orioles and Astros in the wild card round, which would be watched at home by the 84-win Rays and 80-win Angels.

Once Again, the Battleground States Determine the Outcome: Sim 3424

The battleground states in the 2024 Presidential election were Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. The latter two don’t have MLB teams. In Sim 3424, representatives of the other five states win their division.

AL East
W
 
AL Central
W
 
AL West
W

New York
94

Detroit
90

Seattle
98

Baltimore
93

Cleveland
83

Houston
90

Tampa Bay
83

Minnesota
82

Texas
88

Toronto
74

Kansas City
79

Los Angeles
66

Boston
70

Chicago
66

Sacramento
60

NL East
W
 
NL Central
W
 
NL West
W

Atlanta
97
 
Pittsburgh
85
 
Arizona
97

New York
82

Milwaukee
85

Los Angeles
94

Philadelphia
81

Chicago
85

San Diego
91

Miami
66

Cincinnati
79

San Francisco
81

Washington
60

St. Louis
79

Colorado
52

I’ll bet you didn’t have the Pirates as the Pennsylvania team that wins its division. And, yes, the Brewers and Pirates tied, and who knows how the tiebreaker with the Cubs would work out. But a swing state team can plausibly claim to have won two-thirds of divisions.

The Aesthetically Pleasing Sims 87105, 98100, and 30773

Can you detect the pattern? Here is sim 87105:

AL East
W
 
NL Central
W

Baltimore
95

Chicago
85

Boston
86

Cincinnati
84

New York
82

Milwaukee
82

Tampa Bay
79

Pittsburgh
77

Toronto
78

St. Louis
75

The teams are in alphabetical order, by city. The NL Central configuration occurred 1,654 times and the AL East one 421 times. There were only six occurrences of a Houston-Los Angeles-Sacramento-Seattle-Texas AL West, and only one each of Chicago-Cleveland-Detroit-Kansas City-Minnesota and Atlanta-Miami-New York-Philadelphia-Washington. It seems that 2025 is not the year for Arizona-Colorado-Los Angeles-San Diego-San Francisco; it didn’t occur. This should not surprise you.

This is sim 98100:

AL East
W
 
NL West
W

Blue Jays
91

Diamondbacks
104

Orioles
86

Dodgers
97

Rays
82

Giants
86

Red Sox
81

Padres
76

Yankees
80

Rockies
57

Alternatively, check out sim 30773:

AL Central
W
 
NL Central
W

Guardians
88

Brewers
84

Royals
86

Cardinals
82

Tigers
83

Cubs
81

Twins
80

Pirates
78

White Sox
60

Reds
77

In those sims, the teams finish in alphabetical order by nickname. That AL East configuration occurred 770 times, AL Central 728, NL West 418, NL Central 274. There were no Angels-Astros-Athletics-Mariners-Rangers or Braves-Marlins-Mets-Nationals-Phillies finishes.

Will They Take Down the Billboards? Sim 69364

Probably not.

NL Central
W

Pittsburgh
106

Chicago
82

Milwaukee
82

Cincinnati
78

St. Louis
69

 

The Absolute Best Sim I’ve Ever Seen: Sim 61389

In past years, I’ve highlighted sims in which there were four-way ties for first in divisions. There were several this time as well: 19 in the AL East, four each in the AL West and NL Central, three in the AL East. But I’ve never seen this before:

AL East
W

Baltimore
81

Boston
81

New York
81

Tampa Bay
81

Toronto
81

Please let this come true. This is the sixth year I’ve done this, and this is absolutely the best outcome imaginable.

So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance: Sims 65736, 60860, and 11585

When you run 100,000 simulations of a season, you get a lot of outcomes. But not every one possible! There are two outcomes that didn’t occur in any of our simulations: Dodgers last and Rockies first. That doesn’t mean they won’t happen (though they won’t). It just means that, per PECOTA, the chance of them happening is less than 1 in 100,000.

But there were three results that exactly hit that 1 in 100,000 threshold. Here are the results that have a 0.001% chance of occurring:

Sim 65736: Rockies finish second

NL West
W

Los Angeles
113

Colorado
79

Arizona
76

San Diego
75

San Francisco
73

Sim 60860: Braves finish last

NL East
W

New York
96

Philadelphia
88

Miami
73

Washington
72

Atlanta
71

That race for third will really capture the public imagination.

Sim 11585: Marlins finish first

NL East
W

Miami
86

New York
85

Atlanta
83

Philadelphia
75

Washington
68

This could really put a crimp in the plans of all those teams expecting to trade for Sandy Alcantara before the deadline.

As Predicted by My Birdfeeder

There were 6,895 simulations in which the Blue Jays had more wins than the Cardinals and the Cardinals had more wins than the Orioles. As anyone who owns a birdfeeder frequented by those three species knows, that’s how it goes in the avian world as well. Cardinals, while shy and gentle, have a size advantage over orioles. Blue jays are much larger birds and, frankly, big jerks who don’t like sharing the feeder.

Odds and Ends

The five most common outcomes were Rockies last (99,162 occurrences), Dodgers first (96,069), White Sox last (92,043), Cubs first (84,136), and Marlins last (81,382). The hardest team to predict is the Rays: 14.0% first, 18.1% second, 21.2% third, 23.9% fourth, 22.8% fifth. The single most common divisional finish was Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Padres, Giants, Rockies, which occurred in 34.6% of simulations. The toughest-to-predict division was the American League East, where the most common finish (Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays, Red Sox) occurred only 2.1% of the time.

Thanks to Robert Au for running these simulations, and thanks to Baseball Prospectus for footing the bill for the computing time necessary to complete them.

*Yes, I know, the Jules Verne science fiction novel whose title I’m stealing describes 20,000 leagues. We’re giving you five times as many leagues for your subscription!